A Mixed Bag
Security fears, football fans, garment industry problems, loss and damage at COP27 and US regional influence.
UPDATE: Your intrepid editor is laid low with a nasty lung infection, but the Long Mekong Daily must be published. First up is Japan’s rumoured AUKUS membership, which is sure to inflame East Asia and Southeast Asian fears of revisionism and rekindle memories of its cruel colonial and imperial fascist past. Second is a piece on how Vietnam’s garment industry is retaining staff in the face of global demand reductions. One positive sign from the COP27 meeting was the establishment of a fund for loss and damage, but the details are yet to be confirmed. No mekong country made it to the FIFA world cup, but many fans will still be watching the action on TV over the next two weeks. Finally a flashback from the Diplomat on why US leaders need to show-up at Southeast Asian meetings.
Is Japan a Revisionist Power?
A new quad is coalescing in the Indo-Pacific, and it is likely to have an even greater impact than the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a grouping that brings together Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The new alignment is coming about as Australia, Britain, Japan, and the United States increasingly align their security interests against the growth of China’s influence and power. The prospect of adding Japan to the Australia-United Kingdom-United States defense cooperation pact, established in 2021 and known as AUKUS—which would turn the group into JAUKUS—could transform security cooperation among liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific like no other previous alliance or quasi-alliance has managed.
Such a partnership was not preordained. Indeed, reports earlier this year that Japan was quietly being asked about joining AUKUS were quickly denied by Tokyo; then-White House press secretary Jen Psaki also dismissed the idea. But Japan looks to be aligning itself with the trio nonetheless, part of a strategic revolution that has not only transformed Tokyo’s security posture but turned it into an increasingly important actor in the Indo-Pacific. Under Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in July, Japan dropped most restrictions on joint weapons development, steadily increased its military budget, and embraced a more active defense posture, including allowing its military forces to engage in collective self-defense with partners.
Since taking power in October 2021, current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has not only built on Abe’s foreign and security policies but also expanded and enhanced Japan’s ties with leading liberal nations in Asia and beyond. Kishida immediately joined Washington and European capitals in sanctioning Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. He has deepened Japan’s engagement with NATO, becoming in June the first Japanese leader to attend a NATO summit. At home, Kishida has continued to increase Japan’s defense budget, with the possibility of doubling it to nearly $100 billion, and will soon publish a new national security strategy. The takeaway for Asia watchers is that Japan’s strategic revolution is not tied to political personalities but rather to evolving Chinese and North Korean threats. Tokyo will continue to develop its capabilities and expand its partnerships as long as Asia’s security environment remains unstable.
A core element of Kishida’s approach is a steady alignment with the three AUKUS nations. In late October, Canberra and Tokyo signed a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation. Although it is not a formal mutual defense pact, the agreement enhances Japan and Australia’s “Special Strategic Partnership” while reiterating their support for global norms and regional openness. Already in January they had signed a military reciprocal access agreement, which eases the procedures for visiting forces and allows the Australian and Japanese militaries to hold joint exercises and work together on disaster relief, including with the United States.
Read the full article here.
Troubling signs in Vietnam’s Garment Industry
For the last several months, nearly 1,000 staff at garment company D.G. in Thu Duc City have been working four days a week and resting the remaining three as foreign orders drop. They work 12 hours a day, including four hours with 1.5 times salary. The company has struggled to source materials, and sometimes buys from the black market at double the price, only to ensure its employees have work. D.G. said it would raise employee salaries next month and give them their 13th month bonus. Thanks to these efforts, the company has seen staff numbers remain stable for nearly six months.
It is among many factories in Vietnam doing all they can to retain workers amid declining orders, hoping to ensure a large enough workforce should the market recover. Garment company PPJ Group, with 17,000 employees in 10 provinces, has been diversifying its products since the beginning of the year to ensure work for employees. "When orders for one line of product declines, we focus on another line to to retain employees," deputy CEO Nguyen Thi Lien said. The company also offers employees zero-interest loans and their children scholarships, Lien said, adding that all remuneration policies will be carried out even though the company is experiencing a challenging period.
Vinatex, which has 23 subsidiaries, has seen orders at many of its factories decline by 10-30% year-on-year, dragging down staff incomes. Some subsidiaries are looking to new markets, or to increase product quality to meet new customer needs. Others are accepting low-profit orders or even losses to ensure jobs, said Vinatex deputy CEO Nguyen Thi Thuy. "Factories are not prioritising profits for now as long as operation is ensured."
Read the full article here.
COP27 Loss and Damage Fund
There were hopes COP27 would lead to new commitments on emissions reduction, renewed commitments for the transfer of resources to the developing world, strong signals for a transition away from fossil fuels, and the establishment of a loss and damage fund. By any estimation, the big breakthrough of COP27 was the agreement to establish a fund for loss and damage. This would involve wealthy nations compensating developing states for the effects of climate change, especially droughts, floods, cyclones and other disasters. Most analysts have been quick to point out there’s still a lot yet to clarify in terms of donors, recipients or rules of accessing this fund. It’s not clear where funds will actually come from, or whether countries such as China will contribute, for example. These and other details are yet to be agreed.
Read full article here.
The Ranks of the 32 Qualifying Teams
The FIFA World Cup is one of the most-watched sporting events in the world—in 2018, nearly 3.6 billion people tuned in to watch the tournament. Starting on November 20th, that excitement will return as 32 teams from around the world will compete in the 22nd FIFA World Cup Championship in Qatar. The graphic shows the teams that will be playing against one another this year, and their latest pre-tournament FIFA rankings.
The FIFA World Ranking is used to compare the 211 teams that are part of the FIFA association. They attempt to measure the progression and current ability of the each national football team. The ranking is determined using a number of different metrics, including the number of games a team has won and how “important” those results were, such as in major tournaments or against strong opponents. But high-ranking teams don’t qualify for the World Cup directly. Instead, ranks are used for seeding in regional qualifying tournaments, as each region (also known as a “confederation”) has a select number of slots.
This means that every World Cup, many lower-ranked teams end up qualifying for the event over higher-ranked teams. For 2022, the biggest example of this is Italy’s national team (ranked #6), which failed to qualify. Here’s a look at the World Ranking of the 32 qualifying teams, as of Oct 6, 2022: The highest-ranked team is Brazil with 1841.30 points. The South American team holds the record for most World Cup wins with five total—in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. Next on the ranking is Belgium, with 1816.71 points. Belgium has yet to win the World Cup, however, in 2018 they made it to the semi-finals and ended up getting third place.
Read full article here.
Harris Dispatched
An old adage about the United States’ diplomatic engagement with Southeast Asia states that around 80 percent of the country’s success in the region can be achieved just by “showing up.” By participating in annual summits hosted or attended by ASEAN leaders, the conventional wisdom goes, the United States can put its best foot forward in its political and economic engagement of Southeast Asia.
While this adage has grown into somewhat of a cliché in recent years, especially as the growing geostrategic importance of Southeast Asia has significantly raised the barriers to successful engagement, its central premise – that the United States should attend and send appropriate counterparts to important annual summits hosted by ASEAN leaders – still very much rings true today.
On October 28, however, the White House broke with this conventional wisdom to announce that President Joe Biden would not attend one of three pivotal events to be held in Southeast Asia this month: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting (APECLM) in Bangkok.
While Biden still traveled to Southeast Asia for the first time in his presidency to meet with regional counterparts at both the ASEAN and G-20 Summits in Cambodia and Indonesia, it was Vice President Kamala Harris that attended the APEC Leaders Meeting in Bangkok.
Read full article here.