A River of Knowledge
A flow of knowledge on Lancang-Mekong demographics including population, migration, resources, poverty and development statistics and articles...
UPDATE: The Long Mekong Weekend edition is a river of knowledge for its growing subscriber base. Today, the Long Mekong dives into social and economic development, population statistics, the deserted Pacific Islands, targeted poverty alleviation, natural resource pressures and pandemic migration. Enjoy your Long Mekong Weekend!
Social and economic development of Lancang-Mekong countries
The Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) members are China, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. The total population of the six countries reaches 1.643 billion in 2019 and constitutes 36.2% of the Asian population. The total area of the six countries is 11.54 million square kilometers, making up 25.9% of the total area of Asia. The GDP of the six countries stands at 15.3 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for 48.35% of the GDP of Asia. Details about these countries in 2019 are:
1. China
With a population of 1.4 billion and an annual growth rate of 0.33%, China covers a land area of 9.6 million square kilometers (official statistic of China). Its urbanization rate is 60.6% and its GDP is 14362.87 billion U.S. dollars, up by 6.1% year-on-year. China's GDP per capita is 10,276 U.S. dollars, up by 5.8% year-on-year. Its total volume of export and import is 4.58 trillion U.S. dollars.
2. Cambodia
With a population of 16 million, Cambodia is 180,000 square kilometers in area. Its GDP is 26. 8 billion U.S. dollars, up by 7.1% year-on-year. Cambodia's GDP per capita is 1679 U.S. dollars. Bilateral trade between Cambodia and China is 9.43 billion U.S. dollars, up by 27.7% year-on-year.
3. Laos
With a population of 7.23 million, Laos is 236,800 square kilometers in area. The country’s GDP is around 19 billion U.S. dollars, and its GDP per capita is 2765 U.S. dollars. Bilateral trade between Laos and China is 3.92 billion U.S. dollars, up by 12.9% year-on-year.
4. Myanmar
With a population of 54.58 million, Myanmar is 676,600 square kilometers in area. Its GDP is 76 billion U.S. dollars. Its bilateral trade volume with China is 18.7 billion U.S. dollars, up by 22.8% year-on-year.
5. Thailand
With a population of 69 million, Thailand is 513,100 square kilometers in area. Its GDP is 523.7 billion U.S. dollars, up by 2.4% year-on-year. Bilateral trade between Thailand and China is 91.75 billion U.S. dollars, up by 4.8% year-on-year.
6. Vietnam
With a population of 96.2 million, Vietnam is 329,600 square kilometers in area. Vietnam's GDP is 262 billion U.S. dollars, up by 7.02% year-on-year, and its GDP per capita is 2800 U.S. dollars. Its total volume of export and import is 517.3 billion U.S. dollars, up by 7.6% year-on-year. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and China is 162 billion U.S. dollars, up by 9.6% year-on-year.
Read more here.
Mekong Basin Population and censuses
The estimated combined population for the Lower Mekong countries was 242.8 million in 2018.1Â Vietnam had the largest population at 96.5 million, while Laos had the smallest at 7 million.
The Lower Mekong countries had an average annual population growth rate of 1.12 percent in the period 2010–2016. Thailand was the lowest at 0.4 percent, followed by Myanmar on 0.8 percent, Vietnam 1.1 percent, Cambodia 1.6 percent and Laos 1.7 percent.2 Thailand’s lower birth rate is attributed to better information on family planning, but also reflects an international trend toward slowed population growth associated with improved economic status.3According to UN projections, Thailand will be the only country in the Lower Mekong to drop into negative population growth (-0.11 percent) by 2025–2030.4
Age distribution
The populations of the Lower Mekong countries are young. An average of one in five are 0–14 years old, with the highest proportions in Laos (34 percent) and Cambodia (31 percent), while just 17 percent are in this age group in Thailand.5
Not surprisingly, this young population is increasingly connected to the world. Internet penetration in the region is rising rapidly, particularly as smartphones with low-cost internet plans become more widely available.6
Looking at average life expectancy at birth forecasts for 2015–2020, Lower Mekong countries split into two groups: Vietnam (76.5 years) and Thailand (75 years) are significantly ahead of Cambodia (70 years), Laos (67.5) and Myanmar (66.5 years).7 The longest life expectancy in the Lower Mekong is held by Vietnamese women, who can expect to live to 81.
The growth in life expectancy figures in recent years also has a wide spread – in just the period 2000–2015, Cambodia saw a jump of 10 years and Laos almost 8 years, while Myanmar and Thailand gained an additional 4 years and Vietnam 2.5 years.8 Â
Population density
As a region, the Lower Mekong countries had an average population density of 125 people/km2 in 2015, a little less than China (146 people/km2), but much less than India (441 people/km2).9 This average, however, hides Vietnam’s high population density of 296 people/km2. Laos has the lowest population density in the region with only 29 people/km2 . Thailand is closest to the region average with a population density of 133 people/km2.
Read full article here.
‘Earth’s empty quarter’: many Pacific nations now have falling populations
In 1989, distinguished Australian geographer Gerard Ward wrote that the Pacific was emptying out.
As people on smaller islands left to seek opportunity elsewhere, the region risked becoming Earth’s empty quarter. He wrote:
Perhaps 100 years hence, almost all of the descendants of today’s Polynesian or Micronesian islanders will live in Auckland, Sydney, San Francisco and Salt Lake City. Occasionally they may recall that their ancestors once lived on tiny Pacific islands … set in an empty ocean.
Ward’s prediction attracted criticism for its doomsday tone. But was he right?
For some countries, he may have been spot on. Populations are now falling in many of the smallest states. On tiny Pitcairn Island, with a population of fewer than 50, it is well over a decade since the last child was born.
But it’s not the same everywhere in the Pacific – while Micronesia and Polynesia are broadly shrinking, Melanesian nations are booming.
Migration isn’t new, of course. What will be new is the prospect of so many people moving that small nations effectively cease to exist. Climate change will only intensify these shifts.
Who’s leaving – and where are they going?
Just in the past six months, populations have declined in two US territories, American Samoa and the Marshall Islands as well as the French overseas collectivity of New Caledonia.
American Samoa’s population has fallen from around 56,000 in 2010 to less than 50,000 in 2020, according to US census data. This is due in part to younger people moving to the US mainland and having children there. Just 6% of the territory’s population were born in the United States, indicating very few people return once they move.
Populations are falling even faster in the Marshall Islands to the north, down 20% between 2011 and 2021 to around 42,000 people. Where are people going? Predominantly to the US, where Marshall Islanders are scattered from Hawaii to Arkansas.
There are good reasons for people to move. The Marshall Islands’ 2021 census found almost half of all families on the islands worried about not having enough to eat. Islanders are moving to escape poverty.
New Caledonia’s population has now fallen below 270,000. Birth rates have fallen, while COVID drove death rates up. When people migrate, they tend to move to France.
Read complete article here.
Targeted Poverty Alleviation for Better Life in the Lancang-Mekong Region: Sharing Experiences
In the last three decades, the economies of Cambodia, P.R. China, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam have become one of the fastest growing in the world, contributing to higher per capita income and an improved standard of living for majority of their people.
The protracted pandemic places these gains at risk. Connective market-based systems were stalled as supply chains and consumer demands were disrupted. These compounded conditions of the marginalized and gave rise to a new urban demographic gravely impacted by massive unemployment and loss of livelihood.
As governments continue to mitigate impacts of COVID-19 in varying degrees, innovative and integrated structural approaches encompassing a "whole-of-society" approach will need to be embedded into longer-term strategies to circumvent deeper socioeconomic contractions.
As such, the project aims to strengthen poverty alleviation initiatives in the region. Through workshops, trainings, and solution-finding dialogues, Mekong Institute (MI) will source tested policies, strategies, and interventions to help Lancang-Mekong nationals reduce vulnerabilities and bridge social divides under the prism of a global health crisis.
MI will also leverage its expertise and networks to advocate intersectoral exchanges among governments, business groups, academe, and non-government organizations to contribute in broadening access to social services, increasing opportunities for job creation, and diversifying business enterprises for the resilient and inclusive recovery of the region.
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Promote pandemic responsive policies, strategies, and interventions to safeguard poverty alleviation gains
Foster public-private collaboration for more effective and integrated poverty alleviation programs
Read more here.
Population Growth and Natural-Resources Pressures in the Mekong River Basin
The Mekong countries have a complex, but interesting, mosaic of demographic attributes and trends. The population of the Mekong region—whole of Yunnan Province of China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam—is nearly 300 million, and over 70 million people live in the Mekong River Basin.
The Mekong Basin possesses the region’s largest potential water source and related resources. These resources are fundamental to ongoing economic development in terms of irrigation and agricultural production, fisheries and aquaculture, energy and forest products, navigation and other modes of transport, domestic and industrial water supply, and tourism. Levels of dependency on the river’s water and related resources are very high, particularly among the rural poor, who rely on subsistence livelihoods and moral economy.
Recent socioeconomic development has begun to slow population growth rates in China, Thailand, and Myanmar, while Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are expected to experience further positive growth well beyond 2050. It is also true that the population growth rates vary considerably across the Mekong River Basin, within and between the basin countries. For example, Yunnan population density has doubled since the 1950s, reaching the current level of 103 people km2, but in the Lancang/Mekong part, the population density is only 62 people km2 due to the rugged and inhospitable landform. On the other hand, Yunnan population growth rate has declined slower than other parts of China (present level of 1.3% y1 compared to less than 0.7% annually for all of China).
Accordingly, the overall Mekong populations are projected to increase well beyond 2050. The population growth and expected demographic changes in these countries create both opportunities and challenges.Population size and its composition have significant impli- cations for pressures on natural resources. Growing populations require more or different food, which typically requires land and water or other forms of production (6). This paper examines population growth and its likely impacts on food demand and land and water resources in the Mekong River Basin in a systematic and integrated manner. As a first step, we present a clear overview of demographic trends in the Mekong River Basin. Next, we conduct a comprehensive analysis to explore the complex relationship between demographic change and impacts on the natural-resource base in the Mekong River Basin.
Download the full paper by Sokhem Pech and Kengo Sunada here.
Working Paper on Population Growth and Natural Resource Pressures in Pursat Catchment
This project examined the linkages between population and demand for food and water. Cambodia, in general, and Pursat Province in particular, have a complex and interesting mosaic of demographic attributes and development issues. The Tonle Sap basin and Pursat catchment possess the country’s largest potential water resources. These resources have the ability to support on-going economic development, including irrigation and agricultural production, fisheries and aquaculture, energy and forest products, navigation and other modes of transport, domestic and industrial water use and tourism.
Download the full working paper here.
Pandemic Migration
The Covid-19 pandemic is having an unprecedented impact on the lives of people around the world. Migrants in the Greater Mekong Subregion are severely affected given their limited access to social protection, lack of job security, and precarious immigration status. Throughout the pandemic, the Mekong Migration Network (MMN), a sub-regional network of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) who work to promote and protect the rights of migrants, has urged governments to take robust action to protect the rights, welfare and livelihoods of migrants in this time of crisis.
As part of our evidence-based advocacy, the collaborative research presented in this publication seeks a better understanding of how individual migrants survive the Covid-19 pandemic through the choices they make and to feed this knowledge into the policy discourse. Focusing on migrant workers from Cambodia and Myanmar in Thailand and recent returnees of those nationalities, the study examines how various factors, including longstanding labour migration issues and inadequate social protection, shape decisions to either remain in Thailand or return to countries of origin. It provides a textured account of the decisions made by migrants amid the wave of redundancies and border closures, as well as thoughts on how their decision-making can inform policy as we move through the pandemic era.
Download the full paper here.
Statistics
The following links will redirect you to statistics relating to migration within and beyond the Greater Mekong Subregion, published by governments in the region or inter-government agencies.Â
TRIANGLE in ASEAN of the International Labour Organization publishes quarterly briefing notes to update on the programme’s work in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. The document includes figures relating to outbound/ inbound migration drawn from government sources. The quarterly briefing notes are available in English here.
Migration statistics of Thailand (updated monthly), available in Thai here.
Migration statistics of Thailand (updated annually), available in Thai here.Â
Myanmar Government Census, 2014, available in Burmese and English here.
International migration statistics of South Korea, available in English here.
Migration statistics of Taiwan, available in English here.
Number of foreign individuals by visa category and nationality in Japan, available in Japanese here.
Migrant workforce numbers of Singapore, available in English here.