American Pie and Bitter Pill
US-ROK singing from the same nuclear prayerbook, plot to overthrow Cambodia government revealed by PM, US bank contagion is a pandemic, Bakhmut is now Artyomovsk, Sudan ceasefire is temporary at best
UPDATE: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s rendition of Don McLean’s classic pop song American Pie obscured the new “Washington Declaration” aimed at further nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula by the United States.
Prime Minister Hun Sen has uncovered a plot by some overseas Cambodians to overthrow the government. PM Hun Sen’s warning comes after a group of about 20 people held a Zoom meeting, in which they posed as members of a civil society organisation headquartered abroad.
First Republic Bank became the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the lender was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and sold to JPMorgan Chase on May 1, 2023. First Republic is the latest victim of the panic that has roiled small and midsize banks since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023.
Located in the Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Artyomovsk [Bakhmut] was a major transportation hub for the Ukrainian army’s supplies in Donbass. As adviser to the acting DPR head Yan Gagin told TASS on April 18, Russian forces already controlled almost 90% of Artyomovsk.
South Sudan's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the SAF Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo had accepted the 72 hour ceasefire for humanitarian relief.
Radioactive American Pie in Korea
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s rendition of Don McLean’s classic pop song American Pie obscured the new “Washington Declaration” aimed at further nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula by the United States. Biden believes “that the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal should be deterring—and, if necessary, retaliating against—a nuclear attack.”
However, the latest assessment released by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence says Pyongyang is getting closer to a genuine intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability that could threaten the continental US and reduces the credibility of Washington’s doctrine of extended deterrence. This holds that Washington’s commitment to use – if necessary – its nuclear arsenal to deter North Korea from attacking the South means that Seoul has no need for its own nuclear capability.
The report quickly conflates North Korea with China to highlight Washington’s real target and its increasing foreign policy influence and defensive military power. The report forecasts that China will increase pressure on the US over Taiwan and oppose offensive US forward posture military presence in the South China Sea.
The US has convinced its Korean client to increase nuclearisation on the peninsula to target China using North Korea as the excuse. One need only remember that it was the United States that partitioned Korea, invaded to stop unification, sent 150,000 Koreans to fight in Vietnam and has been increasing its militarisation of the region ever since.
In January Yoon told South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo that he feared that the status quo of extended deterrence was no longer sufficient. He said:
What we call extended deterrence was also the US telling us not to worry because it will take care of everything, but now, it’s difficult to convince our people with just that. The US government also understands that to some degree.
The Washington Declaration aims to address this. Biden and Yoon agreed on a range of measures, which increase nuclearisation on the Korean peninsula. These include the establishment of a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to plan for nuclear contingencies and US influence over its client’s approach to nuclearisation.
the US retains the sole right to decide on the use of nuclear weapons under all circumstances.
In July 2022, Seoul set up a “strategic command” that controls a so-called “precision strike” system for North Korea. This will now be integrated with the US-ROK Combined Forces Command (CFC). The new agreement also sets out that the two countries will engage in “joint execution and planning for ROK conventional support to US nuclear operations … on the Korean Peninsula”. The new agreement commits to “enhancing the deployment of US strategic assets in and around the Korean Peninsula, in particular US nuclear-capable platforms”.
The words “more visible” are significant here because normally the location and deployment of sea-based nuclear deterrents is kept strictly secret. Biden clarified this in a joint press conference, saying: “we’re not going to be stationing nuclear weapons on the peninsula, but we will have port visits of nuclear [AUKUS] submarines”.
The Editor.
Overseas Cambodian group treachery
Prime Minister Hun Sen has uncovered a plot by some overseas Cambodians to overthrow the government. PM Hun Sen’s warning comes after a group of about 20 people held a Zoom meeting, in which they posed as members of a civil society organisation headquartered abroad. They discussed some issues concerning ASEAN and Cambodia, noting that they are monitoring the upcoming July 23 National Election, and are ready to oppose the results if the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) continues to win.
In a Telegram message yesterday, Mr Hun Sen said that he had intercepted a Zoom video meeting in which the plot was discussed by a group posing as a civil society organisation.
Mr Hun Sen said: “Your Zoom meeting cannot hide information from me, even if you are abroad and posing as a civil society group. I will help spread the word about this meeting held on April 30, 2023.”
“How long do you want to destroy Cambodia? You want democracy but oppose the election and are ready to declare more plans to go against the election results.”
The PM said he has embedded people to monitor the situation in such civil society organisations to report on the status and activities of all these anti-government groups. The Prime Minister warned that if members of these civil society organisations want to visit Cambodia, it will be difficult for them because he considers them as extremist groups and groups that want to destroy the nation.
Interior Minister Sar Kheng, during a meeting with NEC officials at the ministry on April 7, said that security arrangements will include deploying armed personnel to guard polling stations and keep watch during election campaigning. The Interior Ministry has set up a special task force, headed by National Police Chief General Neth Savoeun, to oversee security arrangements during the July 23 National Election. At least 100,000 security personnel will be deployed all over the country to ensure there are no disruptions to the election process or
attempts to create social unrest. More than 20,000 village security guards will participate in maintaining security and public order during the election.
Read more here.
US Bank contagion spreads
First Republic Bank became the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the lender was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and sold to JPMorgan Chase on May 1, 2023. First Republic is the latest victim of the panic that has roiled small and midsize banks since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023.
The collapse of SVB and now First Republic underscores how the impact of risky decisions at one bank can quickly spread into the broader financial system. It should also provide the impetus for policymakers and regulators to address a systemic problem that has plagued the banking industry from the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s to the financial crisis of 2008 to the recent turmoil following SVB’s demise: incentive structures that encourage excessive risk-taking.
JPMorgan Chase's move to acquire most of First Republic Bank's assets this week hasn't stemmed investor concerns about the financial prospects for other regional lenders. The stock prices of Comerica, PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bank and Zions Bank shares fell sharply Tuesday as attention shifted to other financial players that could be at risk of the startling bank runs that have taken down First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in recent weeks.
"Wall Street is quickly hitting the sell button as banking turmoil appears it is not going away anytime soon and is ready to focus on the next weakest link — potentially distressed lenders with tremendous exposure to commercial real estate," Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said in a research note.
Shares of Los Angeles-based PacWest, with $44 billon in assets, plunged 28%, while $65 billion Western Alliance tumbled 15%. The KBW regional bank index fell 5.5% on the day and is down 28% this year.
The selloff comes one day after JPMorgan won a government bid to take over most of assets of First Republic, which was seized by bank regulators as part of the deal. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on Monday that the emergency deal would help stabilize the banking industry, while warning that the turmoil affecting midsize and small lenders could continue.
PacWest saw its deposits fall by $5.7 billion between January and March. Western Alliance, which also posted earnings last week, reported $3.3 billion in deposit outflows. In March, customers pulled their money out of SVB because of concerns the banks could be on the hook for hefty losses. For some investors, regional banks are becoming akin to stodgy brick-and-mortar retailers focused on selling non-perishable commodity products.
Despite the recent bank failures, officials from the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Biden administration have repeatedly expressed confidence in the stability of the broader banking system. Yet investors have increasingly shunned banks that, like SVB, have large amounts of uninsured deposits — accounts holding more than the FDIC's $250,000 deposit insurance limit. Some banks have also been wrong-footed by rising interest rates, which have raised their costs at the same time that depositors have withdrawn funds in search of higher-returning investments.
Bye bye Bakhmut - hello Artyomovsk
Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have advanced some 160 meters in various directions in Artyomovsk (Ukrainian name Bakhmut), the founder of the Wagner private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Tuesday. "Today, on May 2, Wagner PMC units advanced up to 160 meters in various directions in the city of Bakhmut. The enemy controls an area of around 2.7 square kilometers. We have taken 53,000 square meters under control," Prigozhin wrote on Telegram on Tuesday.
Located in the Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Artyomovsk was a major transportation hub for the Ukrainian army’s supplies in Donbass. As adviser to the acting DPR head Yan Gagin told TASS on April 18, Russian forces already controlled almost 90% of Artyomovsk. Acting head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin said on April 24 that Russian forces had advanced in the northwestern and western parts of Artyomovsk, but the situation remains tense there.
Ukraine’s armed forces have sustained huge losses in Artyomovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine), despite the fact that several of their best brigades were deployed to the city, Spain’s El Pais reported on Monday.
According to the newspaper, on Friday Ukrainian troops blew up two small bridges linking the only Ukraine-controlled access road to Artyomovsk and erected a floating bridge instead. The newspaper also reported that several small groups of Ukrainian soldiers arrived in the city as reinforcements.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that the Ukrainian military admits that several of its best-trained army units have been destroyed near Artyomovsk in recent months. Although data on Ukraine’s losses are classified, some officers acknowledge the losses on condition of anonymity.
Artyomovsk, a major transport hub used as a logistics center for the Ukrainian army in Donbass, is located in the Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Fierce fighting continues for control of the city. Acting head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin said on February 16 that Russian forces had taken control of the high ground around Artyomovsk.
Livemap here.
Sudan truce and attacks
KHARTOUM - The Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Thursday agreed to extend the existing cease-fire, which expires at midnight Thursday, for three more days. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army's general commander, gave initial approval for the extension of the cease-fire late on Wednesday for another 72 hours, the army said in a statement, reiterating it unilaterally approved the truce extension.
South Sudan's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the SAF Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo had accepted the initiative. However, neither side has commented on the statement. In response, the RSF said in a statement on Twitter that it agreed "to extend the humanitarian truce for an additional 72 hours" starting at midnight Thursday.
"We reaffirm our commitment to the terms of the humanitarian truce, considering the circumstances of the Sudanese people and to facilitate the evacuation of diplomatic and foreign nationals," the statement said.
The current truce failed to stop fighting in the Sudanese capital Khartoum and other regions, but it created a lull for foreign countries to evacuate their diplomats and citizens from the conflict-ravaged country.
As the armed conflict continued between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan's Health Ministry on Tuesday announced that the death toll has climbed to more than 550.
A total of "550 deaths and 4,926 injuries were recorded in all hospitals in Sudanese states," the ministry said in a statement, adding that the situation was calm in all states except for Khartoum and Central Darfur.
Despite the sixth 72-hour truce, intermittent clashes continued between the SAF and the RSF in various areas in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum and Omdurman. The SAF carried out intensive airstrikes against RSF positions in Bahri (Khartoum North), west of Omdurman, and around the army's general command in central Khartoum, eyewitnesses said. In a statement on Tuesday, the RSF said it managed to shoot down a SAF military plane.
The Sudanese police forces on Tuesday carried out widespread campaigns in Khartoum to combat crimes, blocking the roads to prevent criminals and outlaws from committing illegal activities."The campaign tends to secure markets, important commercial sites and vital facilities," it said.
Fighting between the SAF and the RSF in Khartoum and other areas erupted on April 15, with the two sides accusing each other of initiating the conflict which has pushed the country to the edge of a humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, the Forces of Freedom and Change Alliance (FFC), a civilian political coalition in Sudan, on Tuesday called on the Sudanese people to stage demonstrations demanding the end of the conflict."Today (Tuesday), the alliance called for large-scale protests at the areas which are not affected by the conflict to push for negotiations and stoppage of the war," tweeted Yassir Arman, the FFC's spokesman.
"We, in villages and cities which are not affected by the war, must come out in masses to push for negotiations and stoppage of the war," said Arman.
According to UN statistics, thousands of Sudanese citizens have been displaced or forced to seek refuge in safe areas in Sudan and neighboring countries, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Chad.