Cambodia Attractions
Japan seeks ASEAN Future within US Strategic Shadow
By Ry Sochan
Following the upgrading of Cambodia-Japan bilateral relations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” last year, a senior Japanese diplomat has underscored that although the two countries’ bilateral ties are currently sufficiently robust and positive, he urges that they be further strengthened.
The upgrade took place in 2023, as the two countries marked the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
“Through the ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’, we would like to further develop bilateral relations. They are currently strong, but under the new partnership, we would like to develop them further,” said Japanese ambassador to Cambodia Atsushi Ueno.
Ueno made the statement at a March 21 seminar, held in Phnom Penh to discuss ASEAN-Japan cooperation and the role of Japan-Cambodia relations.
Politics and diplomacy
In the field of politics and diplomacy, Ueno noted that high-level visits are developing smoothly. He explained that since the inauguration of the seventh-mandate government, Prime Minister Hun Manet has already met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida twice, once in the Indonesian capital Jakarta last September, and once in Japan’s Tokyo in December.
“We have seen many high-level reciprocal visits,” he said.
Defence cooperation
Military cooperation is also progressing well, Ueno said. Coincidentally, Manet is a former commander of the Royal Cambodian Army, while the top officer of the Japan Self-Defence Forces (JSDF), General Yoshihide Yoshida, was formerly head of its ground self-defence forces.
“Both of them are former army chiefs, so they have excellent personal relations. Based on these kinds of personal ties, defence cooperation between the two nations is developing smoothly.
“Japanese ground service forces and the Royal Cambodian Army have formed a memorandum of cooperation for major dual training exercises,” he stated.
Ueno recalled that Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) naval vessels visited Sihanoukville port twice last year and have already docked once this year.
People-to-people exchanges
Ueno described the Japan Alumni of Cambodia (JAC) organisation as core contributor to cooperation between the two countries, saying the embassy will further develop its cooperation with the JAC.
“Today’s event is one of our efforts to strengthen our relations with you. Not only through JAC, of course; the embassy would like to extend our communications with other Japan-related Cambodians as well.
“We would like to strengthen our efforts in the field of Japanese language training, cultural exchanges, and so on,” he said.
The economy
Regarding economic connections, Ueno explained that Manet is very eager to invite more investment from Japan, adding that during his leader’s meeting with Kishida last December, Manet proposed the establishment of a Cambodia-Japan Special Economic Zone (SEZ).
“I have been speaking with senior officials from the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC) and other relevant ministries and agencies about how to deal with Manet’s proposal.
“Frankly speaking, just establishing the SEZ will not guarantee investment from Japan. But I believe Cambodia has huge potential to attract more foreign direct investment, including from Japan. I’m talking with the CDC’s senior leadership and others about how we can increase investment from Japan,” he said.
During the seminar, government senior minister Sok Siphana recalled Manet’s visit to Thailand last month, where the prime minister discussed how to improve the complementary nature of the SEZs of both sides with his Thai counterpart Srettha Thavisin.
“I see here a lot of opportunities to attract not just new Japanese companies but businesses which are already established in Thailand,” he said, adding that this way, they can outsource some of the supply chains to the Cambodian side.
“I foresee that in the next four or five years, Cambodia will be benefiting quite a bit from this regional trend from the sub-region and from Japan. I would also like to see the Kingdom embrace the new trend of renewable energy,” explained Siphana.
Civil society
Regarding civil society, Ueno said Japan has been working closely with Cambodia on the path of democratic development, and will continue to support the democratic development of the Kingdom in various ways.
Wider development
The envoy explains that Japan will continue to provide official development assistance (ODA) to Cambodia in various fields, as well as the newer priority fields of digitalisation and enhanced connectivity.
“We are already providing support in areas like demining, water supply, environment and some priority areas designated in phase one of the Cambodian government’s Pentagonal Strategy, like human resources development and governance reform. We would like to provide cooperation in additional areas as well,” he said.
Speaking at the seminar, JAC member Sim Vireak expressed his belief that as Cambodia is aiming to become an upper-middle-income economy by 2030 and a high-income status by 2050, future discussions should focus on how the Kingdom and Japan can become a part of the solutions to each other’s problems.
“I don’t know, maybe in the future we might discuss how we could establish a Cambodia-Japan FTA [free trade agreement], or maybe we set up and facilitate free visas for both Cambodian and Japanese tourists, or perhaps we think about how we can promote Cambodia’s role within Japan’s production and supply chains in Southeast Asia?” he asked rhetorically.
“Perhaps Cambodia could become Japan’s logistics hub in the Mekong region? How can Cambodian businessmen buy Japanese technologies to drive innovation and the industrial base here in Cambodia? Maybe be need to work out how to develop more regional infrastructure to support the digital economy?” he mused.
Vireak added that Japan and Cambodia have a lot to share and discuss with each other, in order to benefit from the larger landscape of the Mekong basin, as well as ASEAN as a whole.
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Australia chokes On Aukus
Australia’s submarine capability sinks
By Malcolm Turnbull
The provision of American Virginia-class subs depends on US industrial development, military needs, politics – and possibly Trump. Australia has no agency or leverage over any of these As we contemplate the real likelihood of Trump #2, what does that mean for Aukus? We start off with absolutely no leverage.
Scott Morrison’s big idea in Aukus was to cancel a submarine construction program with France which would have given us new boats to replace the Collins-class subs as they retired in the 2030s, with a partnership to build new (as yet design incomplete) nuclear-powered “Aukus SSN” submarines with the UK assisted by the United States, the first of which would not be available, assuming all went on time, until the 2040s.
But how do you fill the capability gap left by the retirement of the Collins-class submarines in the 2030s? Most big defence projects run late and the UK contractor, BAE, has consistently run late and over budget on its naval projects, including the most recent UK Astute-class submarine and the Australian Hunter-class frigate.
The solution was to acquire three, possibly five Virginia-class submarines from the US, with the first arriving in 2032 and the next two in 2035 and 2037, with an additional two if the Aukus SSNs are late.
They would be a mix of secondhand boats, with 20 years of life left, and new boats. These would cover our submarine needs until the Aukus SSNs were constructed.
If submarines were like iPhones and you could buy them off the shelf that would all make sense, but as it happens the US navy is short of submarines. It has at least 17 fewer Virginias than it currently needs. Not only is US industry not building enough to meet the US navy’s needs, it cannot maintain a satisfactory rate of repair and maintenance of the submarines it has. As of last September, 33% of the SSN force was in depot maintenance or idle awaiting maintenance, versus a target of 20%.
At the moment the US is completing between 1.2 and 1.3 Virginia-class submarines a year. This year the US navy has cut its order for new Virginias from two boats to one in recognition of the inability of industry currently to meet its needs.
In order to meet the US navy’s own stated needs and catch up on its submarine shortage, this rate of production needs to grow to two boats a year by 2028 and 2.33 boats a year shortly after that. In order to provide boats to Australia, as contemplated by Aukus, that higher rate of production would need to be maintained.
The Aukus legislation passed by Congress last December specifically states that submarines cannot be sold to Australia unless the president certifies that their sale will not detract from the needs of the US navy. This is stating no more than political common sense; the US will not sell Virginias to Australia unless the US navy avows that it does not need them.
This means that in order to get to that point you have to assume the rate of Virginia-class submarine construction will nearly double over the next four years, the submarine needs of the US navy will not increase and that by the early 2030s the navy will be sufficiently relaxed about the China threat that it is prepared to reduce its own submarine fleet by three and maybe five of its most valuable underwater assets.
Many US defence experts, such as the former Trump-era assistant secretary for defence Elbridge Colby, say it is just not realistic to expect the US navy to diminish its own fleet of such vital assets during a period when they believe war is a very real possibility.
The provision of Virginia-class submarines to the Royal Australian Navy depends on US industrial development, US military needs and US politics. Australia has no agency or leverage over any of these factors. So much for Australian sovereignty.
Is there a plan B? Well, nobody in Canberra seems to have one, but the US certainly does. It is set out, in considerable detail, in an official research paper prepared by the US Congress and is described as a “Military Division of Labor” whereby Australia would have no submarines. The US navy would base some of their own in Perth, at the submarine base we are building for them, and Australia would invest the money it has saved into other capabilities. Or it could just hand over more cash to the US government – pay for our own protection perhaps, like South Korea or Japan do.
This arrangement could continue until such time as the Aukus SSNs, to be built in partnership with the UK, arrive (some time in the 2040s we hope) or continue for ever. Royal Australian Navy officers and sailors could perhaps be included in the crew of some of these Virginias.
What will Donald Trump’s attitude to Aukus be? Well, we have already agreed to give the Americans US$3bn as a contribution to expanding their submarine industrial base. Trump will no doubt be bemused that we would spend money on expanding HIS country’s industrial base rather than our own (and even more amazed we are sending a similar amount to the UK to support the construction of the Aukus SSNs). His natural instinct will be to ask for more money, both as a contribution to the US submarine construction industry and for the submarines, if we get around to buying one – although that is likely to be after his four-year term.
Trump’s second-favourite slogan is “America First” and that is very much the zeitgeist in Washington nowadays, on both sides of the aisle. So if there is any contention or suggestion that the US navy cannot spare Virginias for Australia, there is no mystery where Trump will land.
It seems to me the most likely outcomes will be that the Virginias will not be available to Australia because the US navy cannot spare them and the Aukus SSNs will almost certainly be late. This would mean an extended capability gap from the early 2030s when Australia will have a diminishing and then no submarine fleet. Even someone with the most optimistic perspective would have to acknowledge this scenario was a serious possibility.
We could look back and reflect that with the now-cancelled Attack-class submarine program with France, Australia was entirely in control of its own destiny. All of the relevant IP had been transferred to Australia, where the submarines were being built. Their completion depended on us. France had no possible motive or reason to be anything other than supportive. The design was established and nuclear-powered versions of the submarine were already in the water. Compared with Aukus it was a much lower-risk, and lower-cost, exercise.
But it is now too late to revive the French partnership. There was a window of opportunity to do that after the election of the Albanese government, but it resolved to stick with Morrison’s policy and the risks it carried.
At the time Aukus was announced I was concerned the nuclear-powered submarines, using weapons-grade uranium provided by the US or the UK, would not be able to be operated without foreign supervision and support. This was not, to my way of thinking, a sovereign submarine capability.
We now have to face the real prospect, for much of the next decade and beyond, of not having any Australian submarine capability at all.
NB: Malcolm Turnbull is a former prime minister of Australia
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