Codes of Conduct
South China Sea energy, Russia hits US Reaper, Canada seeks "regime change", US media admits Ukraine cracks and fissures, losses and pessimism, AUKUS subs-obsolete before delivery.
UPDATE: ASEAN Chair Indonesia is opposed to the AUKUS arrangement and pushing for finalisation of the Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea.
Russian SU-27 fighter aircraft conducted an intercept with a US reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft (Reaper drone), forcing it down over the Black Sea.
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly admitted that the long term goal of western involvement in Ukraine is not merely to see Moscow defeated, but to enact “regime change” in Russia.
The quality of Ukraine’s military force has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield.
AUKUS is estimated to cost between A$268 billion and A$368 billion over the next three decades. However, science is learning to detect submarines, to the point where the oceans of tomorrow may become “transparent”. The submarine era could follow the battleship era and fade into history.
Oil Exploration in the South China Sea
China has engaged with its Southeast Asian neighbours over oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea as ASEAN Chair Indonesia promotes finalisation of the Code of Conduct. In the last year, China has begun development at several gas fields south of Hainan. In September, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced that production had started at two gas fields in the Yinggehai Basin: Dongfang 1-1 and Ledong 22-1. In January, CNOOC began drilling at the Lingshui 25-1 gas field, the second deepwater field to be developed by China after the nearby Lingshui 17-2, which began production in June 2021.
Ledong 22-1, Lingshui 17-2, and, most likely, Lingshui 25-1 sit in areas of the continental shelf claimed by both Vietnam and China. These are on the Chinese side of the median line but remain technically disputed in the absence of any boundary delimitation.
Indonesia has approved a $3 billion plan to develop the Tuna gas field that sits at the northern edge of its maritime claims. The field is also at the southern edge of China’s claimed nine-dash line. China engaged in a months-long operation in late 2021 to harass exploratory drilling in the block. Later in January 2023, Indonesia included the Natuna D Alpha, among the license areas it would auction off for exploration this year.
Harbour Energy plans to sell gas from the Tuna block to Vietnam by connecting a pipeline to the latter’s Nam Con Son project at Vanguard Bank. The common denominator is Russia’s state-owned Zarubezhneft, which is Harbour’s partner in the Tuna block and operates Block 06-1 in the Nam Con Son basin. Zarubezhneft purchased Block 06-1 from Rosneft in 2019.
Farther north in the Nam Con Son basin, a Japanese-developed gas field has also quietly come online. The Sao Vang-Dai Nguyet gas and condensate development project, located in blocks 05-1B and 05-1C, is operated by Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan and produced its first gas at Sao Vang in November 2020. In 2021, Idemitsu completed a central processing platform for the project, and the first gas was expected from the Dai Nguyet field in 2022.
Nearby in block 12W, Harbour Energy began infill drilling to extend the life of existing production at the Chim Sao and Dua fields in September 2022. This block is projected to continue producing through 2028.
ExxonMobil has partnered with PetroVietnam to develop the Ca Voi Xanh gas field and a corresponding pipeline in the northern South China Sea. In January, it was reported that government authorities and PetroVietnam were to accelerate the project and reach a deal for a gas supply contract within the first quarter of 2023. With an estimated 150 billion cubic meters in reserves, Ca Voi Xanh would be Vietnam’s largest gas project to date, but has been delayed for years.
The ongoing developments in Nam Con Son and the potential start of the Ca Voi Xanh project. Spanish firm Repsol has withdrawn from the region selling its assets to Malaysian firm Hibiscus Petroleum. Vietnam in 2020 paid $1 billion in reimbursements for costs out of concern that the projects would trigger a maritime incident with China.
Malaysia has continued to push ahead on several oil and gas projects in the South China Sea. Since last fall, three discoveries have been made in exploration blocks off Sarawak in an area that is a hub for both Malaysian oil and gas activity. In September, exploratory drilling struck gas in block SK320. Then in December, hydrocarbons were discovered at exploratory wells in blocks SK306 and SK410B. Production is moving ahead at the Kasawari gas field and production is slated to start in 2023. The site is host to a major offshore carbon capture and storage operation, the world’s largest by estimated annual emissions reductions.
Malaysia also completed the licensing of four “ultra-deepwater” exploration blocks off of Sabah. A production sharing contract for block 2K was signed in October between France’s TotalEnergies, Malaysia’s Petronas, and the United Kingdom’s Shell, with Shell having previously signed contracts for blocks 2V, 2W, and X.
The Philippines have turned to redeveloping the Cadlao oil field, an old concession that last produced oil in the early 1990s. Cadlao today has an estimated 5 million barrels in reserves—a far cry from Reed Bank’s estimated 5 billion barrels of oil and 55 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Read full report here.
US Air Force drone forced down over Black Sea
Russian SU-27 fighter aircraft conducted an intercept with a US reconnaissance unmanned MQ-9 aircraft (Reaper drone), forcing it down over the Black Sea, the United States European Command reported on Tuesday. The U.S. said it has wiped out the drone’s software, but was unable to salvage the wreckage before the Russian navy.
"At approximately 7:03 AM (CET) (9:03 a.m. Moscow time - TASS), one of the [two] Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters”. The Russian ministry of defense said that the drone was flying with its transponders off, “violating the boundaries of the temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace, and published in accordance with international standards.”
US President Joe Biden was briefed about the incident and Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov was summoned to the State Department over the incident. The U.S. said it routinely flies aircraft in both sovereign and international airspace “in order to bolster collective European defense and security” and “support Allied, partner, and U.S. national objectives.”
Compiled from reports.
Canada seeks "Regime Change" In Russia
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly admitted that the long term goal of western involvement in Ukraine is not merely to see Moscow defeated, but to enact “regime change” in Russia. Joly made the comments while her government announced new sanctions against the import of Russian aluminum and steel.
“We’re able to see how much we’re isolating the Russian regime right now — because we need to do so economically, politically and diplomatically — and what are the impacts also on society, and how much we’re seeing potential regime change in Russia,”
Joly’s comments will only serve to bolster Vladimir Putin’s assertions that NATO support for Ukraine is about isolating Russia and eventually overthrowing its government. Former UK Defense Minister Sir Gerald Howarth also said last month that NATO may need to send ground forces to Ukraine.
Read article here.
‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart
Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring. Kyiv, for now, has ignored Washington’s input.
There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. There have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude.
A lot of top military brass are supportive of giving the Ukrainians the ATACMS” long-range missiles, but there are few to spare in America’s own arsenal. There’s also fear that Ukraine might strike faraway Russian targets, potentially escalating the war.
“the best thing we can do is to continue to help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield so they can be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table for when that time comes.”
A recent report that the Pentagon was blocking the Biden administration from sharing evidence of possible Russian war crimes with the International Criminal Court also put another dent in the unity narrative. However, the point is mute; the US does not recognise the ICC because it sought to prosecute the US military over war crimes in Afghanistan. White House officials were dismayed when the New York Times story came out, fearful it would damage the moral case the U.S. has made for supporting Ukraine against Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Read full article here.
Washington Post: On the front lines, the mood is dark.
The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.
U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia’s invasion early last year, however, Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from NATO.
Statistics aside, an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.
“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”
“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”
Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital. An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, given the scars of attrition that are beginning to show.
“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”
One senior Ukrainian government official, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.
“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”
“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”
The challenges stem from steep losses. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s commander in chief, said in August that nearly 9,000 of his soldiers had died. In December, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said the number was up to 13,000. But Western officials have given higher estimates and, in any case, the Ukrainian figures excluded the far larger number of wounded who are no longer able to fight.
A German official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said that Berlin estimates Ukrainian casualties, including dead and wounded, are as high as 120,000. “They don’t share the information with us because they don’t trust us,” the official said. Even with new equipment and training, U.S. military officials consider Ukraine’s force insufficient to attack all along the giant front, where Russia has erected substantive defenses.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, told The Post last month that Russia had more than 325,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and another 150,000 mobilized troops could soon join the fight. Russia’s recent gains — notably around Bakhmut — have tilted the battlefield, and officials in Washington have questioned Kyiv’s refusal to retreat. The United States has been advising Ukraine to retreat from the city since at least January, the U.S. official said.
Read full article here.
AUKUS subs: obsolete before delivery
Speaking at a summit in San Diego on Monday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a decades-long strategy to deliver the most costly defence project in Australia’s history. New details of the AUKUS defence and security pact have revealed Australia will buy three second-hand US Virginia-class submarines early next decade (and potentially two more), subject to approval by US Congress.
Australia will also build a fleet of eight nuclear-powered SSN-AUKUS boats at Adelaide’s Osborne Naval Shipyard. The first will be delivered by 2042, with five completed by the 2050s, and construction of the remaining three going into the 2060s.
It’s estimated the program will cost between A$268 billion and A$368 billion over the next three decades. The greatest strength and greatest weakness of subs is their stealth. However, subs in the ocean are large, metallic anomalies that move in the upper portion of the water column. They produce more than sound. As they pass through the water, they disturb it and change its physical, chemical and biological signatures. They even disturb Earth’s magnetic field – and nuclear subs unavoidably emit radiation.
Science is learning to detect all these changes, to the point where the oceans of tomorrow may become “transparent”. The submarine era could follow the battleship era and fade into history. The potential impact of developments in artificial intelligence, sensor technology and underwater communication suggests that, regardless of progress in stealth technologies, submarines – including nuclear-powered submarines – will soon be easily detected in the world’s oceans.
The results should ring alarm bells for the AUKUS program to equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. There is a high degree of uncertainty about dramatic reductions in stealth effectiveness in the coming decades. In other words, Australia risks investing in a nuclear ecosystem whose use-by date is before the subs are delivered. It’s not just the science and technology, but also supply chains, precision manufacturing, skilled craftspeople and context-specific policies and laws.
Australia does not have the luxury of its AUKUS partners. Both the United Kingdom and United States have had decades to build not only nuclear submarines, but also supporting national ecosystems.
Read full article here.