Depleted Ukranium
Tank delays and uranium, letter to Biden on false intelligence. Soledar loss, Bakhmut boiler, Russian advances, WHO radiation [depleted uranium shells) health guidance,
UPDATE: The first casualty of war is truth - All warfare is based on deception. This is also the case of the war in Ukraine. The Long Mekong Daily cuts through the fog of lies and war propaganda to analyse the conflict; current tactical situation; and the real interests that lie behind the excuses and justifications of the different parties involved.
"The time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation," The Spectator (Kissinger, 2023)
Zelensky dismissed a host of top officials following the visit of CIA chief William Burns. The dismissals and resignations — notably of Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff, Kyrylo Tymoshenko; Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov; and Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko — represent the biggest shake-up in Ukraine’s leadership since Russia launched its special military operation in February.
US-led NATO allies risk war with Russia over escalating military aid
Putin’s restraint in the face of massive western military aid to Ukraine has been remarkable but his forbearance may not be boundless. From day one of the war in Ukraine, the most powerful argument against unrestrained western intervention in the conflict has been the danger of catastrophic escalation into an all-out war between Nato and Russia.
So far, western governments have shied away from a truly existential confrontation with Russia. But the threat remains that continuing western military aid to Ukraine will provoke Russian countermeasures that could turn Moscow’s proxy war with Nato into a direct military conflict.
The real purpose of sending this western armour to Ukraine may be to provide political cover for politicians who fear the blame game that will erupt if and when Russia wins in Ukraine.
Recent decisions by western governments to supply Ukraine with many more tanks and armoured vehicles suggest that the materialisation of such a scenario is not so far-fetched.
Read the full article here.
Leopards vs. the Russian Bear
ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY (VIPS)
Decisions in an Intelligence Vacuum
Dear President Biden:
We are aware that the just-reported decision to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine responds to Berlin’s coy insistence that "you go first." Now Leopard tanks from Germany and other allies will also be sent. Trouble is that those few that make it into Ukraine will be late to the party.
What your advisers should have told you is that none of the newly promised weaponry will stop Russia from defeating what’s left of the Ukrainian army. If you have been told otherwise, replace your intelligence and military advisers with competent professionals – the sooner the better.
It has long been clear that you have not been adequately briefed on two issues of major importance: (1) the war in Ukraine, and (2) the strategic partnership between Russia and China. We chose this genre of "ALERT MEMORANDUM" because we want to prepare you for a major shock. Russia’s winter offensive is about to roll over the Ukrainian army. At that point, unwelcome choices will have to be made. Off-ramps must be sought – again, the sooner the better.
Your current top intelligence adviser statements run from dishonest to naïve (see below). They betray a woeful lack of understanding of Russia’s strategic concerns and its determination to use its formidable military power to meet perceived external threats. The statements also reflect abysmal ignorance regarding how US behavior has led willy-nilly to a profound shift in the world correlation of forces in favor of Russia and China – to include making them military allies in all but name.
CIA Director William Burns promotes the notion that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was "unprovoked." Burns was US ambassador 15 years ago when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the US what to expect if Ukraine became a member of NATO. In a Feb. 1, 2008 cable to Washington titled "Nyet Means Nyet: NATO Enlargement Redlines," Ambassador Burns reported:
"NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains ‘an emotional and neuralgic’ issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership … . "In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene."
So much for "unprovoked."
[…]
Nor can Putin be dismissed as paranoid. He has heard from the lips of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin:
"One of the US’s goals in Ukraine is to see a weakened Russia. … The US is ready to move heaven and earth to help Ukraine win the war against Russia."
Can the US achieve Austin’s goal? Not without using nuclear weapons.
Read full letter to Biden here.
Ukraine: The ignominious unravelling of the West has begun
Western powers appear to have no viable strategy to bring the Ukraine war to an end. The best they can do is keep Ukraine on life support. But, as Sun Tzu put it, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
The war would have been avoided if the United States and NATO had negotiated in good faith with Russia on the proposals it presented in December 2021 that sought to address Russia’s core security concerns. For Kishore Mahbubani, the “absence of a culture of pragmatism,” meant that reaching a compromise with Russia was unacceptable to the Western powers.
The focus of the Western project in Ukraine now become an opportunity to “weaken Russia,” which when the dusts settle could well be remembered as the greatest strategic miscalculation in the history of the American imperium.
Russia effectively won this war on 24 February 2022 – the day it launched its invasion. What remained uncertain then as it is now was how much territory Ukraine would lose, the extent of the death and destruction, and the geopolitical convulsions that would result.
Read full article here.
A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks.
The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 that US President Joe Biden is preparing to send "a significant number" of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and that the White House may announce the delivery as soon as January 25.[1]
German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on January 24 that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to deliver at least one tank company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine in an unspecified time frame.[2]
Poland likely will send Ukraine Leopard 2 tanks following Germany’s decision. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak stated on January 24 that Poland formally requested Germany grant permission to transfer Poland’s Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Berlin would not interfere if Poland wanted to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.[3]
British officials confirmed on January 16 that the United Kingdom would send Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.[4]
French President Emmanuel Macron stated he would not rule out the possibility of France sending Ukraine Leclerc tanks on January 22.[5]
Read more here.
The New Atlas YouTube Channel explains why Ukraine won’t get tanks
Ukraine Admits Pullout from Soledar, Captured By Russia
Ukraine's military conceded to AFP Wednesday that its troops had pulled out of the town of Soledar in the eastern Donetsk region, which Russian forces said they captured earlier this month.
"After months of heavy fighting, including over the past weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine left (Soledar) and retreated along the outskirts to pre-prepared positions," said military spokesman Serhiy Cherevaty.
Moscow said at the time that taking control of Soledar was an important step to capturing the nearby larger town of Bakhmut, where fighting has raged longer than any other place in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its invasion.
Read more here.
Kyiv Says Forces Outnumbered, Battling 'Intensifying' Russian Attacks Near Bakhmut
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on January 25 that Russian forces are "intensifying" their attacks near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine and warned that Moscow had a "superior number of soldiers and weapons" in what has become a hot spot in the 11-month-old invasion.
"the enemy is intensifying pressure in the Bakhmut and Vuhledar sectors […] The enemy is throwing a significant number of personnel, weapons, and military equipment into the battle, trying to break through our defences, [and] is suffering significant losses but is not giving up its plans […] The intensity of the fighting is increasing."
Read more here.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian fronts and launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.
The Russian military appears to be shifting its focus toward conventional forces deployed to Luhansk Oblast and away from the non-traditional force structure of the Wagner Group and its focus on Bakhmut.
The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to downplay the Western provision of tanks to Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects.
Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Svatove as Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
Ukrainian forces have likely made advances around Kreminna.
Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Soledar.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Russian forces reportedly continued localized offensive operations near Vuhledar.
Russian forces continued to conduct small-scale ground attacks across the Zaporizhia Oblast front line, likely to attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian milbloggers are divided over the veracity of Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov’s ongoing, overblown information operation.
The Kremlin is attempting to downplay new restrictions on crossing the Russian border, likely in an effort to contain panic within Russian society about a likely second mobilization wave.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be attempting to conduct another wave of mobilisation discreetly out of concern for undermining his support among Russians.
Read full report here.
WHO updates critical medicines list for radiological and nuclear emergencies
The World Health Organization (WHO) today updated its list of medicines that should be stockpiled for radiological and nuclear emergencies, along with policy advice for their appropriate management. These stockpiles include medicines that either prevent or reduce exposure to radiation, or treat injuries once exposure has occurred.
Download the full WHO report here.
Depleted uranium Shells and M1 Tanks
An assessment by the Scientific Committee on Health and Environmental Risks (SCHER) states that depleted uranium is a dense metal produced as a by-product of enrichment of natural uranium for nuclear fuel. It is still radioactive, but at a much lower level than the starting material. It is used in armour-piercing shells and bombs, to give them more penetrating power. Such munitions were used in both Gulf Wars and in Serbia and Kosovo. Their use has raised concerns about health threats from exposure to the distributed uranium. What is the latest and best evidence on the environmental and health risks of depleted uranium, especially after its military use?
Read more here.
The Tungsten M-1—How Ukraine’s Tanks Will Differ From America’s
There’s a good reason it might take months—even the better part of a year—for Ukraine to get those first 31 M-1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States. Vehicle-maker General Dynamics Land Systems has to remove the uranium from the tanks then swap in tungsten. Both metals can be problematic.
It takes six months for GDLS to build a new M-1 at the government-owned tank factory in Lima, Ohio. The firm manufactures just three tanks a week, and has a huge backlog of orders from Poland, Taiwan and other buyers. As for those thousands of surplus M-1s sitting around at U.S. Army arsenals? They’ve got a depleted-uranium mesh in their armour mix.
Read more here.