Election Results

Imran Khan arrest riots, Erdoğan still leads, Thaksin Shinawatra's final bet, Cambodia elections demand respect

May 11, 2023

UPDATE: Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has been arrested on corruption charges by the country’s paramilitary forces in capital Islamabad. Khan’s arrest on Tuesday sparked nationwide protests and demonstrations, while the government blocked internet services in big cities.

Candidates are neck and neck in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on 14 May: CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his opposition alliance have realistic chances of beating long-time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AK Party.

The Shinawatra clan’s party Pheu Thai, fronted by his daughter Paetongtarn, is leading in the polls, thanks in large part to its deep reservoir of support among the rural poor, its long-standing anti-military credentials and tactic of deploying a family member as a figurehead. But in Thai politics, securing the most seats is no guarantee of victory.

The international community has paid close attention to the approaching elections in Cambodia with many observers expressing doubts about the legitimacy of the country’s elections. The international community must, however, respect Cambodia's sovereignty and accept the election results.

How the world reacted to Imran Khan’s arrest in Pakistan

Leaders and world bodies call for restraint and raise alarm after Pakistani authorities suspend mobile internet. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has been arrested on corruption charges by the country’s paramilitary forces in capital Islamabad. Khan’s arrest on Tuesday sparked nationwide protests and demonstrations, while the government blocked internet services in big cities.

The 70-year-old opposition leader appeared in a court on Wednesday where the authorities are seeking approval to keep the opposition leader in custody for 14 days.

On Tuesday, Khan was appearing in the Islamabad High Court on multiple corruption charges when dozens of agents from the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), backed by paramilitary troops, stormed the courtroom and broke windows after Khan’s guards refused to open the door.

The shock arrest deepened an ongoing political turmoil and sparked violent demonstrations across the country, in which at least one person was killed in the southwestern city of Quetta. Dozens of other PTI supporters were wounded in clashes with the security forces.

The arrest and consequential protests have led to officials of other governments and world bodies to call for restraint and calm.

Here is how the world reacted to Khan’s arrest:

A top UN official on Tuesday stressed the need to ensure all political figures in Pakistan are treated fairly and that due process is followed. The official’s comments came hours after Khan was arrested.
In a statement, the EU emphasised that in such “difficult and tense times” in Pakistan, “restraint and cool headedness were needed”. “Pakistan’s challenges can only be addressed and its pathway can only be determined by Pakistanis themselves, through sincere dialogue and in line with the rule of law,” it said.
The United States has called for respect for democratic principles and the rule of law in Pakistan. “We are aware of the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. As we have said before, the United States does not have a position on one political candidate or party versus another,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters at her daily news conference.
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said he has not yet had the opportunity to be briefed in detail on the developments in Pakistan, but the UK wants to see “peaceful democracy” in the country. “The UK has a longstanding and close relationship with Pakistan. We are Commonwealth partners. We want to see peaceful democracy in that country. We want to see the rule of law adhered to. I am uncomfortable to speculate any further without having a detailed briefing on that,” Cleverly said.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn, a prominent member of British Parliament and former leader of the Labour Party, condemned Khan’s arrest on Twitter. “The arrest of former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, is a dark day for democracy,” he tweeted.

Read more here.

Türkiye: Erdoğan still leads

Western observers don't think the Turks have it in them to change, T24 comments:

“They see Turkey as both Eastern and Muslim, and cannot reconcile it with democracy. In a way, Erdoğan's Turkey proved them right. As Turkey moved away from democracy, it created a comfort zone for them because they no longer had to think about its place in Europe. And now now they find it difficult to leave that comfort zone. ... If there is a change of government on 14 May, it will set an important example that a one-man regime can be overthrown with elections, and that a predominantly Muslim society can have democratic reflexes.”

The election outcome could have an impact on Sweden's Nato membership, which Turkey has always blocked, Göteborgs-Posten believes:

“If the opposition wins the election, Sweden's application could be approved by the Turkish parliament before the Nato summit in July. ... If he's beaten, will Erdoğan relinquish power of his own accord? He has experience with electoral fraud. But Turkey is a democracy after all - albeit a flawed one. ... For Erdoğan to succeed in a coup he'd also need strong support from the military, which he lacks. If he and his party lose the election on Sunday, it would be the start of a new chapter for Turkey. And perhaps also for Sweden.”

Writing on Facebook, political commentator Vladislav Inosemtsev compares the presidents of Russia and Turkey:

“For years Erdoğan has won every possible election, he has rewritten the constitution, moved from one key post to another, strengthened traditional values and indulged in geopolitical experiments and the construction of a 'Turkic world' at the expense of the national economy. ... Yet one should not draw too direct parallels between Turkey and Russia, firstly because the institutions of elections and an independent judiciary were never completely destroyed in our southern neighbour, and secondly because Turkey remains a successful industrialised country. ... Erdoğan has not succeeded in completely cleansing the political arena.”

This time the people are not letting on who they will vote for, observes journalist Muharrem Sarıkaya in Habertürk:

“In this election the 'silent majority' will be decisive. ... In every place I visited last week, all the candidates of all parties said the same thing. ... Politicians can no longer read the voting behaviour of the masses. ... There is no sign of party placards or posters on the balconies and windows, which generally indicate the political attitude of a street or district. We walked through so many streets, but apart from around the election offices of the parties we couldn't find anyone who had put up party placards or election posters on their own initiative.”

Many voters face a very difficult decision, comments the NZZ am Sonntag:

“Erdoğan's rule has lasted since 2002. He has restructured his state and its institutions. The economy, the media, the civil service - everything dances to his tune. Voters in Turkey will weigh the benefits: continue with Erdoğan, who is so powerful that he decides many things with a wave of his hand - the doubling of the minimum wage, the abolishment of the retirement age, one month of free gas for all households? Or put their trust in a new team? A six-party alliance? A new president who promises a return to full democracy but is unlikely to achieve a rapid improvement of the economic situation?”

Kılıçdaroğlu has given numerous interviews to the international press in recent weeks and major news magazines have featured the potential ousting of Erdoğan as their cover story. Erdoğan has reacted very harshly to this, observes Yetkin Report:

“[The Turkish presidential palace in] Beştepe is saying that foreign powers are active once more and trying to influence the elections in Turkey - as if the AKP electorate constantly read The Economist or Der Spiegel and was influenced by these articles. ... Yet it is President Erdoğan himself who has called the election on 14 May a 'decisive election'. ... But when the foreign press talks to his rival, even speculating that he could win, that's when the fun is over.”

Erdoğan's cancelling a campaign appearance because of health problems sends a clear signal, The Observer comments:

“Erdoğan, 69, has ruthlessly wielded power, as prime minister and president, for 20 years. His carefully cultivated image is of a tough, indestructible leader. Yet suddenly he appears frail. Ministers insist that his illness - he has previously had intestinal surgery - is nothing more serious than stomach flu. ... Whatever the truth, the episode has added to a growing sense that an authoritarian figure who has come to dominate almost every aspect of Turkish life, personally dictating domestic, security and foreign policy, is due a reckoning - and that it's time for a change.”

Despite growing support for his challenger Erdoğan hasn't lost the battle yet, Le Temps insists:

“His increasingly obvious return to a closed and exclusive political Islam, his eccentric about-turns, the repression of intellectuals, opposition figures, the media and all those who could potentially outshadow him in recent years have not damaged his great popularity. It remains intact among large sections of the population. Even combined with the extremely poor economic results, which the Turkish government tried to conceal for as long as possible, these obstacles, although numerous, may still not be enough.”

Yetkin Report is worried by the fact that the Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu has described the elections as a political coup:

“Calling elections - the most legitimate foundation of a democracy - a coup represents a new dimension. Because by espousing such an extremely anti-democratic view you can count everyone who doesn't work for President Tayyip Erdoğan in the election - so at least half the population - as coup plotters. ... Is this a message from the interior minister to opposition voters two weeks before the election: 'Even if we lose power because of your votes, we won't give it up'?”

Above all, Turkey's next government will have to cope with the economic crisis, historian Mihály Dobrovits writes in Élet és Irodalom:

“The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato have given Ankara increasingly good cards. However, failures in domestic policy and economic policy and the catastrophic earthquake in February have countered these successes. ... Whoever wins the election will have to take over a country that is in a promising foreign policy situation and a profound economic crisis.”

Read more here.

Thai Election: Shinawatra’s last chance

The clan’s party Pheu Thai, fronted by his daughter Paetongtarn, is leading in the polls, thanks in large part to its deep reservoir of support among the rural poor, its long-standing anti-military credentials and tactic of deploying a family member as a figurehead. But in Thai politics, securing the most seats is no guarantee of victory. A junta rewrote the constitution in 2017 to give the military a huge advantage in future elections. And Thaksin has had to watch from afar as other parties with more radical pro-democracy platforms have eaten into Pheu Thai’s support.

“It is Thaksin and the Shinawatras’ last bet,” Wanwichit Boonprong, from Rangsit University’s faculty of political science, told AFP.

“He will be 74 years old, and if Pheu Thai cannot get a landslide or even form the government, his chance to return home will be even more unlikely.”

Thaksin tweeted Tuesday that he plans to return to Thailand by his 26 July birthday, saying he is ready to face justice in numerous corruption cases against him.

But rather than the courts or military, Wanwichit said the skyrocketing popularity of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), which has gained support from the youth who led pro-democracy protests three years ago, posed the bigger longer-term challenge.

“If we wait for another five more years, all trends will lead to Move Forward Party. Pheu Thai knows they can’t wait, they need to win this election,” he said.

New threat

Millions will vote on Sunday as Pheu Thai takes on establishment players like former junta chief Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha and his new United Thai Nation (UTN) party.

The Shinawatra family have been a dominant presence in Thai politics for over 20 years — parties linked to the family have won the most seats at every election since 2001. Thaksin was prime minister between 2001 and 2006, while his sister Yingluck served as leader from 2011 until Prayut ousted her in a 2014 coup.

The family brand holds strong, especially in the party’s rural heartlands, and the polls suggest Pheu Thai will again emerge with the most seats after Sunday’s vote, but more progressive parties are nipping at its heels.

MFP is polling just 2.5 percentage points behind Pheu Thai in the latest survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA).

“If Pheu Thai can’t form this government, then it will be more difficult in the next general election,” said Jatuporn Prompan, a former leader of Red Shirt protests that took over the streets of Bangkok in 2010 in support of Thaksin.

Enduring appeal

When Thaksin scored his decisive election wins in 2001 and 2005, part of his appeal lay in his then-novel approach of focusing on policies that appealed to the kingdom’s millions of poor and rural voters.

Once in power he mostly delivered for these communities, who remain loyal to the family and the party.

“He makes poor people’s lives better, he thinks about poor people who have to work to make ends meet,” said Katkaew Thipboonsri, 47, a Bangkok vendor.

Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar, now a campaign manager for Pheu Thai, thinks this enduring popularity will allow Thaksin’s party to triumph once again. “He is still popular and beloved by most Red Shirts,” he told AFP.

And while for some the Shinawatra name is tainted by corruption, others say the family’s willingness to stand up to the military over two decades offers a way out of Thailand’s endless merry-go-round of coups and street protests.

Taxi driver Mana Saenyod, 46, protested against Yingluck’s government — though he was not a Red Shirt — but he feels differently this time around.

“I am not a Pheu Thai fan but I see it is necessary to help them win a landslide, otherwise we cannot get rid of the military,” he told AFP.

Read more here.

The Election Commission (EC) is expected to be able to announce unofficial results at about 10pm on May 14th, said Suranee Pontawee, deputy secretary-general of the EC, today (Wednesday). She said that the media will all know the unofficial results at the same time, if they link to the EC’s ECT Report system, which is heavily protected against hacking and system collapse.

She also said that members of the public can gather at the Office of the Election Commission or at the central vote-counting offices in the various provinces to keep abreast of the election results, or follow the vote counting via the internet.

Suranee said the first set of election results, from polling stations which have a small number of voters and advance votes, are expected to enter the ECT Report system at 7pm, two hours after the 5pm poll closure.

Votes cast in every polling station will be checked, counted and put in a sealed ballot box, signed for by the local election chief and sent to the relevant district office for rechecking. After that, the results will be entered into the ECT Report system, she added.

Read more here.

Cambodia's 2023 Election Earns Respect of International Community

Cambodia is a sovereign state with the right to self-govern and hold elections free from outside intervention in its pursuit of domestic and foreign policy autonomy. Since 1993, the establishment of democratic institutions in Cambodia has advanced significantly. The successful conduct of parliamentary debates, holding of regular elections, and increased press freedoms, are among Cambodia’s accomplishments in the post-conflict era.

While the effectiveness of Cambodia's electoral system is not disputed, the recent dissolution of the country’s main opposition party has raised concerns among some local politicians. However, voters retain a legitimate selection of parties, including the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) registered for participation in the election. The National Election Committee (NEC) has also taken appropriate steps, including voter registration and ballot counting, to guarantee that the election will be free, fair, and transparent.

Cambodia’s electoral processes have a long history of international assistance and intervention. While the 1990s UN intervention in Cambodia was meant to further democracy and stability, it was not always successful and resulted in a protracted period of bloodshed. It is imperative that the international community avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and engage in constructive engagement with the government of Cambodia to implement solutions that benefit the people and foster peaceful international relations.

Predictions of the election result have turned on whether Prime Minister Hun Sen will retain his position and prompted much debate across the world. Discussion and concern over elections is de rigueur, but it is also crucial for the international community to reject inflammatory narratives and respect Cambodia’s sovereignty and democratic system of government. Cambodia has made significant political, economic and social progress since ridding itself of the genocidal regime of Pol Pot in the 1970s. Cambodia has rebuilt its infrastructure, agriculture, industry, education and health systems, and constructed a democratic administration that has lifted the country from a least developed country to lower middle income country.

Despite the nation’s successes, small groups and various disaffected individuals have denounced the election, raising questions about the validity of the results and the fairness of the process. While it is important to address criticism and optimise election processes, it is also important to respect Cambodia’s right to self-determination and the majority of voters in the country’s democratic system.

Criticism of the Kingdom’s election, especially from foreign situated critics with dual nationality, are frequently interpreted as a deliberately destabilising strike against the nation and its citizens. To assist Cambodia in advancing its democratic system, constructive criticism and assistance are needed more than praise. This entails helping to promote free and fair elections and fostering openness and citizen engagement.

It is also important to understand that the election is only one component of Cambodia's path to democracy and prosperity. The nation continues to face the serious challenges of poverty alleviation, corruption control and human rights protection. The international community can best support Cambodia by tackling these issues and advancing toward a brighter future through coordinated cooperative efforts that respect Cambodia’s economic advances, cultural heritage, social traditions and democratic system.

Cambodia is a distinct nation with a glorious national past and significant cultural inheritance, but also a history of colonial subjugation, foreign interventions, civil war and political isolation. The gains made since 1993 cannot be easily undone or replaced by criticisms of Cambodia’s democratic system that pander to foreign media narratives to leverage great power rivalry or regional tensions. Moreover, the notion that foreign political systems can be grafted onto Cambodia’s distinct cultural and social traditions are both impractical and misleading.

It is important to acknowledge that Cambodia’s electoral process is still in its early stages of development. The country’s democratic system, which continues to evolve and solidify as the government and people of Cambodia strive to ensure fair and transparent election processes, should be recognized and respected for its considerable successes. Cambodia has achieved significant progress in terms of economic growth, education, and social development since the dark days of the Khmer Rouge regime. The country’s general elections, which remain an important step in the country's democratic journey and reflect the will of the Cambodian people, deserve the respect and support of the international community.

Dr. Seun Sam is a policy analyst of the Royal Academy of Cambodia. All views in this article are his own.

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