Futility and Fiasco
Bakhmut encircled, German F-35s swimming, Taiwan disappointed, Israel and Australia cashing in, France furious, AUKUS sinking
UPDATE: Russian gains in Donbas collapse Ukraine defences. US allies Japan, Germany and UK face deep economic troubles and the Long Mekong Daily doubts that Europeans wish to see Germany military power emerge from the Ukraine conflict as second only to Russia in western Eurasia. Similarly the Long Mekong Daily doubts Asians wish to see Japan emerge second only to China as a military power in East and South East Asia.
The parlous state of the US economy has seen it provide ever greater support for both Germany and Japan to rearm. Counter-intuitively and conversely to the majority of media reports The Long Mekong Daily sees the US economy being bled dry in Ukraine and the Pacific as China, India and ASEAN see 5% GDP growth.
Biden & Scholz praise each other as Bakhmut falls to Russia
US president Joe Biden and German chancellor Olaf Scholz praised each other’s country’s support towards Ukraine. “As NATO allies, we’re making the alliance stronger and more capable,” said Biden. The US announced a new military aid package of ammunition and other support for Ukraine worth US$400m authorised by the president under emergency powers to transfer articles and services from US stocks without congressional approval. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said he saw a “small improvement” in diplomacy with Russia after a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi.
Meanwhile, the chief of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner has said his fighters have “practically encircled” Bakhmut. Only one road remains under Ukrainian control, Yevgeny Prigozhin added in a video posted online in which he called on the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to abandon the city.
The situation in Bakhmut appeared to be extremely precarious amid evidence that Ukraine was desperately preparing new defensive positions around the nearby city of Kramatorsk. Video posted online showed the Ukrainian’s blowing up of a railway bridge over the Bakhmutka River to the east of the city, while other footage showed damage to another road bridge.
Read more here.
Germany Refuses to Supply Taiwan With Weapons
A German lawmaker has revealed that the country will not supply weapons and military equipment to Taiwan amid its tensions with China. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the head of the country’s parliamentary defense committee, said during her recent visit to Taipei that the situation in the Asian country is different from what is happening in Ukraine.
Berlin is emerging as one of the top donors of weapons to Kyiv to support its counter-offensives against Russian forces. According to her, Germany’s role in Taiwan is “less military.”
“There’s no question about sending weapons to Taiwan. That is not the question. We talked a lot here with people, with politics, and the question is not ‘please Germany send us weapons,’” Zimmermann told reporters.
When asked if Western countries should also assist Taiwan militarily amid increasing threats from China, Strack-Zimmermann only said that Germany would not attempt to do so. She further stated that the island nation has a different partner when it comes to arming its army.
Free Democratic Party deputy chairman Johannes Vogel explained that Germany has a “moral obligation” to avoid military aggression in the Taiwan Strait.
“And then one has to think what can you bring on the table, and we think the economic dimension of avoiding a horrible scenario is something we can effectively bring on the table,” he said during a press conference.
Read more here.
German arms: Lots of money, no concept
Security experts criticise the lack of clear strategic vision when it comes to arms procurement. Germany is having a hard time increasing its defense procurements despite a special €100 billion ($107.2 billion) fund to bring the country's weapons and equipment back up to standard following decades of attrition since the end of the Cold War.
It was only three days after Russia's Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the nation's parliament to announce unprecedented plans for the largest-ever investment to upgrade the country's military apparatus.
"It is clear that we must invest significantly more in the security of our country to protect our freedom and our democracy in this way," said Scholz of the €100 billion special fund.
"It's a major national effort. The goal is an efficient, progressive, state-of-the-art Bundeswehr (German military) that protects us reliably," he added.
While everyone was waiting for German and other international arms companies to immediately vie for a chunk of the money, nothing really happened.
Read more here.
Germany rearms with Israeli weapons
Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a "turning point" in modern history - The era of a shrinking German military is over! The days in which only three German combat aircraft are operational, and no submarine can put to sea because of technical problems, are at an end.
"Soon," Scholz promised, "Germany will have the largest conventional army in Europe within NATO."
Such militant talk has been heard from Berlin before WWI and WWII. The German pendulum, has swung sharply to the path to rearmament, after decades of neglect and downsizing, abolition of mandatory conscription, and limited military procurement.
The German Zeitenwende ("change of eras") catches Israeli security relations with Europe's biggest economy, meaning an opportunity for a financial bonanza.
"From the moment the German army's procurement list was published, that is, the key areas where it intends to spend the €100 billion, the phones have not stopped ringing," an Israeli source familiar with security procurement relations between the two countries told "Globes". "Every Israeli company, state-owned or private, believes it can find an item that fits the systems it develops, and that now is the time to sell to the Germans."
Read more here.
France furious: Germany-NATO buy missile defense shield
France is not participating in the project comprising German, American and possibly Israeli systems, because it is developing its own shield with Italy. As NATO defense ministers met in Brussels on Thursday 13 October, 14 countries led by Germany announced that they had agreed on the joint acquisition of an air and missile defense shield. The shield will be comprised German, American and possibly Israeli systems, greatly annoying France, a fervent defender of the idea of "European sovereignty," which voluntarily remained outside this project.
Negotiated over several months by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, this project, called the "European Sky Shield Initiative," brings together the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and Finland, along with many countries on Europe's eastern flank (Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and even Hungary). It was formalised in a letter of intent to NATO.
Read more here.
Germany seeks to buy mothballed Leopard tanks from Switzerland
Germany has asked Switzerland to sell 96 of its decommissioned Leopard 2 tanks as it struggles to cobble together two battalions of the fighting vehicles to send to Ukraine. That could allow European countries to fill gaps in their own stocks after promising the modern fighting vehicles to Kyiv, or encourage nations that have been reluctant to spare tanks to increase their commitments.
Pistorius expressed frustration at last month’s Munich Security Conference, saying: “Obviously there are some nations who just preferred to hide behind Germany. It’s easy to say we would if you let us, and when we let them, they didn’t.”
The request from Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius comes amid annoyance in Berlin that its western allies have pledged only disappointing numbers of tanks to Ukraine after spending months loudly urging Germany to do so.
Read more here.
Germany in talks to buy AUD$3 billion tank-like vehicles from Australia
Australia is negotiating its most lucrative defence export deal, with the German army planning to buy hundreds of Queensland-made armoured vehicles as Berlin builds up its military.
Talks over the deal, which could be worth up to $3 billion, are well advanced between the Australian and German governments, and are expected to support thousands of jobs in south-east Queensland and across the broader supply chain nationally.
The first of the Boxer Combat Reconnaissance Vehicles could be delivered to Germany next year.
read more here.
Are Australia’s neighbours ready for AUKUS?
The AUKUS fallout has not prevented positive momentum in Australia’s relations with South-East Asia, yet regional concerns still lurk below the surface, and Canberra needs to strike a careful balance.
Australia’s diplomats in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur could be forgiven for feeling a little nervous ahead of the looming announcement about the AUKUS “optimal pathway” for operating Australia’s fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.
Ties with both Indonesia and Malaysia have been tracking well under the Albanese government. But when AUKUS was first announced in September 2021, neither country was happy. Both worried about the potential for AUKUS to contribute to a regional “arms race”, and about nuclear proliferation risks.
It appears that Australia's AUKUS submarine decision will be coming in March 2023. Neither the US Virginia-class or Astute-class SSNs, but a future replacement of the UK Astute-class called the SSN (R) is possible. However, a refurbished Los Angeles-class SSNs is also possible. See the following.
Read more here, here, here and here.