Thailand Treads Water
Stagflation, Covid, no tourists and a return to the Shinawatra dynasty threaten to put Thailand into a torrent of political and economic turmoil.
UPDATE: After a weekend of looming global financial disaster led by US intransigence to adopt peaceful means for settlement of the NATO crisis in Ukraine, the Long Mekong Daily returns to examination of the six Mekong countries. Today, the Long Mekong Daily dives into the deep structural problems facing Thailand as waves of inflation and debt woes emanating in the US crash against its shores. Online Taiwanese scamming in the Philippines entraps Thai nationals and pyramid finance scams get longest ever prison sentence. Overall, Thailand is in deep financial waters and a return to the Shinawatra dynasty may be on the cards.
NB: The Long mekong Daily is brought to you in partnership with the International Relations Institute of Cambodia.
Tourism is still under water
Heavy overnight rain left Phuket old town under floodwater up to one metre deep and created traffic chaos on Sunday. A monsoon downpour that began on Saturday evening, October 14 was still battering the tourism destination in the early hours of Sunday, causing flash floods to sweep across many parts of the island. Among buildings submerged were the old town’s traditional Sino-Portuguese shophouses, a magnet for Thai and foreign tourists. Floods hit the Charter Bank Intersection, the Thep Kasattree-Thalang Intersection, Klang Road and the Clock Tower roundabout. Roads in the Patong Beach area in Krathu district were also underwater, while flash-flooding cut the main road leading from Krathu’s Tambon Kamala to downtown Phuket. The Star
Thailand to Join US Sponsored Indonesian Military Exercise
The Commander of the Indonesian National Defense Forces (TNI), General Andika Perkasa, has invited the Thai military to participate in the 2023 Super Garuda Shield exercise. The invitation was conveyed by Perkasa when he received a visit from Thai Group Defense Attaché Captain Chayot Sawansan. Perkasa said the meeting with the Thai Defense Attaché was part of strengthening bilateral relations between Indonesia and Thailand. Super Garuda Shield 2022, was a joint exercise between the TNI and the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) to strengthen interoperability, capability, mutual trust and cooperation. The 2022 Super Garuda Shield exercise was joined by military personnel from Australia, Singapore, Japan, Canada, France, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, and the United Kingdom. The joint military exercise was also aimed to create communication between the participating countries. This year's Garuda Shield joint exercise was held in three locations, the Combat Training Center in Baturaja, Palembang; Marine Combat Training Center in Dabo Singkep, Riau Islands; and the Combat Training Center in Amborawang, East Kalimantan. Antara News
Covid Variant Attacks Thai Population
The new Covid-19 Omicron subvariant XBB has become a cause of concern for health authorities after three people from Thailand tested positive in Hong Kong last week. Random tests are being conducted at Thai airports on passengers with respiratory symptoms from Hong Kong and Singapore to see if they may be carrying XBB. The subvariant, also known as BA.2.10, is reportedly a combination of Omicron’s BA.2.75 and BJ.1 variants and was first detected in Singapore and the United States in August. So far, 260 XBB cases have been reported globally. Dr Supakit Sirilak, director-general of the Department of Medical Sciences, said recently that XBB spreads quickly and evades immunity more than other subvariants. However, he said, no cases of this new subvariant have been reported in Thailand, where the dominant Omicron subvariant is BA.5. He suggested that people should get Covid-19 vaccines and continue wearing masks, maintaining social distancing and washing hands regularly to protect themselves. The Star
Shinawatra political dynasty re-emerges
The speculation about who may lead a Pheu Thai government comes with the party doing well in opinion polls and after it unveiled a radical and comprehensive economic strategy last week in Bangkok. Positive opinion poll figures are being driven by the possible candidacy of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra and the latest flag bearer for the Shinawatra political dynasty which, while generating enthusiasm among the party’s grassroots, also runs the risk of precipitating another army coup despite denials by military leaders this week.
Supporters of the move to nominate Sansiri chief Srettha Thavisin as one of the party’s nominees for prime minister say it is important that Thailand’s largest political grouping is seen as looking beyond the Shinawatra family with a disturbing increase in speculation about the possibility of another coup d’état if the 35-year-old daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is installed in the role without having sufficient prior experience in government or the day to day running of a large business organisation. The party is expected to make a formal announcement shortly, a move that will be integral to its election strategy and its ability to take up the reins of power after the next General Election. The Examiner
Myanmar Separatists Attack Friendship Bridge
Two bombs exploded near the first Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge just over the border from Mae Sot district, Tak on Saturday night. The first bomb detonated at the Myawaddy-Mae Sot border checkpoint at 7.20pm, causing damage to one car. The second bomb exploded soon after at Bayinnaung Market, about 1 kilometre from the Myawaddy-Mae Sot checkpoint. Security officials in Mae Sot said improvised explosive devices were used in the attacks. There were no reports of casualties. Thai officials said the bombs were likely planted by a group opposing Myanmar’s military regime. The country has descended into civil war since the military staged a coup in February last year. This is the second bombing on the Myawaddy-Mae Sot border so far this year. The first incident happened on April 23 when a car bomb planted at the foot of the first Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge near the Myawaddy-Mae Sot border checkpoint exploded, damaging a four-storey building and shops nearby. Inquirer
Sixteen Thai nationals allegedly doing forced labor for a Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator (POGO) were rescued in Pampanga before dawn Saturday. Brig. Gen. Kirby John Kraft, Southern Police District (SPD) chief, said in a statement on Sunday that operatives from the District Special Operations Unit, Regional Special Operations Group of the National Capital Region Police Office, Criminal Investigation and Detection Group, and Mabalacat City police launched the operation at Fontana inside Clark Freeport Zone. The rescue was hatched after Minister Counsellor Kriteya Lepkao of the Royal Thai Embassy in Manila informed Kraft on Thursday about a report that there were Thai nationals who were being forced to work beyond their official hours but were not receiving overtime pay from their employer, Shedaikeji Technology. The passports of the 16 Thai nationals will be turned over to the Thai Embassy on Monday. The rescued employees will not file charges anymore as they prefer to immediately return home, according to the SPD report. “The PNP (Philippine National Police), with the help of other participating agencies, has already started a crackdown against human trafficking and POGO-related activities,” Kraft said. Philippine News Agency
The opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) on Saturday proposed an amnesty for political cases, to return justice to those who hold different political views as the party unveiled a platform on politics to kick-start the election campaign. The proposed amnesty, particularly for political offenders facing legal actions since the 2014 coup, is the highlight of its proposed legislative reforms. Billed as "progressive politics", the party's platform on politics focuses on the military, judice system, equality and a charter rewrite. Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat said politics is one of nine areas the party will roll out for the general election. The others include economy, bureaucracy, education, social welfare and environment. "We chose to kick off with issues pertaining to politics because if politics is bad, it is hard to solve economic and social problems. "Politics is about the allocation of power and resources -- how the tax is spent and which direction the country is going. If we don't get good politics, the country won't go far," he said. Addressing legislative reforms, MFP MP and spokesman Rangsiman Rome said laws that infringe on people's civil liberties such as Section 112 and Section 116 of the Criminal Code and the computer crime law should be amended. Section 112 is better known as the lese majeste law, while Section 116 deals with sedition. Both are controversial areas of the law where a parliamentary mandate for reform may be hard to secure. He said proposed amendments to these laws were submitted to the House of Representatives but the bill relating to Section 112 was not included on the House agenda. Bangkok Post
Chamoy Thipayaso from Thailand is known for receiving the world's longest prison sentence in history. She was sentenced to imprisonment for 141,078 years. She was found guilty of the crime of defrauding people through a pyramid scheme. Within 30 years of her scamming career, she defrauded more than 16,000 people in Thailand. Her pyramid scheme promised people to invest money in the hopes of getting more money later. later. Her fraudulent pyramid scheme was so convincing that she also managed to make politicians and military members invest in the end. She promised all of her investors that they would be getting their money back with higher returns. But in reality, she was keeping all of the money to herself. In the end, she ended up making approximately $200 to $300 million from her fraudulent scheme. Eventually, her fraud was discovered by several people who called for her pyramid scheme to be shut down. After a few days, she got arrested. Members of Thailand's royal family were also among those who invested in her scheme. Her trial started only after all the money scammed out from the royal family members was recovered. Newsbreak
Thailand has urged the adoption of international cooperation on fiscal policy and tax measures to help safeguard small-sized businesses and low-income people from looming stagflation. Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said international fiscal and tax measures were needed to cope with the inflation crisis that could develop into stagflation. Mr Arkhom was speaking at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings on Thursday and Friday in Washington. The world economic situation, the new international financial architecture, financial regulations, infrastructure investment, sustainable finance and international taxes were among the key topics discussed at the annual meetings, which wrapped up yesterday. High consumer product and energy prices are now heightening the risk of the world's economic situation turning from an inflation crisis to stagflation, Mr Arkhom told the meetings. Stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing as the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. Mr Arkhom encouraged international governments to join hands in deploying fiscal and tax measures to help cushion the impact, especially on the small enterprises and low-income people. Bangkok Post
The Thai economy is projected to continue its post-pandemic recovery with expansion of 2.8% this year and 3.7% in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This year's GDP growth comes on the heels of 1.5% expansion in 2021 and a 6.2% contraction in 2020, according to Corinne Delechat, division chief in the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department and mission chief for Thailand . The rebound has been driven by strong private consumption and the recovery of tourism. Relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, improved consumer confidence and fiscal stimulus have been the main engines for private consumption. Tourism has picked up following the relaxation of border controls, with 5.8 million international arrivals from January-September 2022, compared with 400,000 for the same period in 2021. "We expect the growth momentum to continue in 2023, with GDP expanding at 3.7% on the back of a continued recovery in tourism, in spite of weakening global demand," Ms Delechat said. The IMF forecast of 2.8% Thai GDP growth in 2022 has been unchanged since July. Private consumption and tourist arrivals are expected to remain strong for the rest of the year, although external demand is projected to weaken. The growth projection for 2023 fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. The revision was driven by lower expectations for external demand from trading partners, she said. Bangkok Post