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China-Russia trade and peace, Kishida’s new Indo-Pacific plan is security first, trade second and US last, US B-52s over the Baltic, ASEAN rejects AUKUS, Cambodia rejects US claims.

Mar 22, 2023

UPDATE: The centre of global politics, wealth and power has shifted to Eurasia. For the first time in history, all of history, the Eurasian super-continent is approaching peace. While China and Russia work towards an Ukraine solution the island nations of Japan, UK and Australia continue to follow the United States in their denial of the new realities of world order.

Global democracy is not a single liberal model that demands uniformity, but the exercise of self-determination free of interference from periphery island states in the internal affairs of their continental neighbours. The continental states are those in Europe, Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. The United States is an island. Not only geographically, but politically and economically. It continues to pursue policies of peripheral interference, subversion and intervention in the name of a “rules based order” in which it decides the rules. Take for example the ICC ruling on president Putin of Russia. The United States openly rejects the ICC , but lauds its tenuous ruling on Putin. The US is not a party to UNCLOS, but regularly conducts FONOPS in disputed waters using UNCLOS as a justification. There is a very long list of US hypocritical stances on global and international treaties, but might is right.

However, four fundamental changes in world order have occurred in the 21st century that constrain US influence and power. The first is the rise of the Global South and its emerging multilateral cohesion. The second is the Eurasian partnership of China and Russia which has effectively blocked US influence between Shanghai and Sevastopol. The third is the establishment of the belt and Road Initiative and its realignment of global trading networks. The fourth is the coalescence of the BRICS around the Global South, non-alignment and de-dollarisation.

The Global North is in dire economic straits and on the precipice of financial crisis and political disorder. Meanwhile the Global South, especially China, India and ASEAN, are experiencing rapid economic growth and constant technological advancements. Japanese efforts to shore-up its economy and security with India and Korea highlight that its future is Asian and not Anglo-American.

While it may seem that the US two-front strategy in the Ukraine and North Korea-Taiwan are strengthening, the reverse is true. Currently both fronts are effectively operating as rear-guard operations as the US seeks to reindustrialise and reinvigorate its crumbling political, economic and social structures. The recent US and Swiss bank failures, massive debt and pursuit of exorbitant military spending is literally bleeding the US and EU economies dry.

The Ukraine peace process is now in full swing and there is very little the US can do from its Atlantic and Indo-Pacific isolation to resist, yet alone reverse, the new global dynamics of peaceful development within a multipolar order. In the final analysis, the United States resembles more the former Soviet Union before its collapse than the exceptionalist republican fantasy it still believes itself to be.

China-Russia Joint Statement

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. “China-Russia relations go far beyond the bilateral scope and are crucial to the world and the future of mankind”, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked when jointly meeting the press with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, adding that “China and Russia will work together to practice true multilateralism, promote post-pandemic economic recovery and build a multipolar world.”

Xi continued his state visit in Russia, meeting with Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Tuesday. Xi and Putin held two rounds of talks in a restricted session and an expanded format, and the two heads of state signed joint statements after their meeting.

The Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era has been signed and released by Xi and Putin at Kremlin. On the Ukraine issue, the two sides stressed talks as solution to the crisis and called for respect for security concerns of all countries in resolving the crisis, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Russia said it is committed to resumption of peace talks as soon as possible.

The two presidents also signed a joint statement on the development planning for the key directions of China-Russia economic cooperation before 2030.

Xi invited Putin to travel to China for the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation this year. When meeting Mishustin, Xi said the invitation was made in his informal meeting with Putin. Xi also said that China is ready to expand cooperation with Russia in trade, investment, supply chain, mega projects, energy, hi-tech areas as well as the people-to-people exchanges on culture, sports, tourism and other key areas.

Nowadays, only Russia and China, two major powers with enough strength and influence, can prevent "the global catastrophe" because "the people in the White House are very irresponsible," (Yury Tavrovsky, deputy chairman of the Russian-Chinese Friendship Society)

The Ukraine crisis and the worsening ties between Russia and the West cannot affect the development of China-Russia ties, and this is a key message sent to the world. It shows that China and Russia are determined to make the world change in a positive way that can better promote multilateralism, multi-polarity and greater democracy in international relations, analysts said.

Xi said while having an in-depth exchange of views on the Ukrainian issue with Putin that "China stands ready to continue to play a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis," according to Xinhua.

Xi stressed that, on the Ukraine issue, voices for peace and rationality are building. Most countries support easing tensions, stand for peace talks, and are against adding fuel to the fire. A review of history shows that conflicts in the end have to be settled through dialogue and negotiation, Xinhua reported.

When China keeps making efforts to promote peace and a cease-fire in the Ukraine crisis, most countries, including Russia and Ukraine, welcome or appreciate China's sincerity, and expect that China can actually bring positive change to the current situation, but there is one country - the US, that openly opposes and criticizes China's mediation effort.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that the "world should not be fooled by a potential Chinese-Russian peace plan for Ukraine that would 'freeze' in place territory seized by Russian forces," Bloomberg reported.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a routine press conference on Tuesday that China is not responsible for creating the Ukraine crisis. We are not a party to the crisis, and has not provided weapons to any party to the conflict. The US is in no position to point fingers at China, still less deflect blames on us.

"The US says it wants to stop wars, but it has been involved in virtually all the conflicts and wars in Europe and indeed around the world with only few exceptions. The US says it wants to defend peace, but the world has seen no US effort yet that is actually meant for peace, as it continues to pour weapons into the battlefield," Wang said.

"To be realistic, the most urgent task for mediation at the moment is not about solving problems like 'invasion' or 'war crimes,' it's about a cease-fire. Soldiers from both sides get killed every day, and millions of refugees are displaced," Wang Wen said.

Answering a query from US media about whether China is willing to work with the US to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang said that China is willing to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. " Perhaps you should ask the US side as well if they are willing to make peace talks happen."

"If the US and the West want to see a peaceful political settlement for the Ukraine crisis, they may trust China's experience on mediation and support China's position," since China has successful record on mediating Saudi Arabia-Iran relations, "so that we can prevent more innocent people from dying on the battlefields of Ukraine," Professor Wang Wen said.

PM Kishida’s new Indo-Pacific plan is security first and trade conditionality

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday invited his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi for the Group of Seven summit in May and announced action plans for a new Indo-Pacific initiative aimed at countering China’s influence in the region. Kishida, who is on a two-day trip to India, said he hopes to promote a vision of free and open Indo-Pacific, a Tokyo-led initiative for greater security and economic cooperation that is geared toward curbing Beijing’s growing assertiveness. It includes Japan’s assistance to emerging economies, support for maritime security, a provision of coast guard patrol boats and equipment and other infrastructure cooperation.

It fits with Japan’s new national security strategy adopted in December under which Tokyo Japan is deploying long-range cruise missiles to strengthen its strike-back capability, and using development aid more strategically in support of like-minded countries. Kishida also held talks with Modi to deepen bilateral cooperation while also addressing food security and development financing.

Kishida said Modi accepted his invitation to participate in the G-7 summit of major industrial nations, which will be held in Hiroshima in May. Kishida said he told Modi that he hopes to take up challenges at the summit including upholding the rules-based international order and strengthening partnership with the international community that goes beyond G-7 and includes the Global South.

“In order to respond effectively to the various challenges that the international community is currently facing, cooperation between the G-7 and the G-20 has greater significance. Such pressing challenges include food security, climate and energy, fair and transparent development finance,” Kishida wrote.

India and Japan share strong economic ties. Trade between the two was worth $20.57 billion in fiscal year 2021-2022. The Japanese investments in India touched $32 billion between 2000 and 2019. Japan has also been supporting infrastructure development in India, including a high-speed rail project.

Russian Fighter Jet Intercepts US B-52 Bombers over Baltic Sea

A Russian Su-35 fighter jet prevented two US strategic bombers B-52 from approaching the Russian border over the Baltic Sea on Monday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry's National Defense Control Center (NDCC).

"On March 20, 2023, the radars of the air defense forces of the Western Military District on duty detected two air targets flying in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation over the Baltic Sea. The targets were identified as two strategic bombers B-52N of the US Air Force," Sputnik reported, citing the NDCC.

In order to identify and prevent breach of the state border, a Su-35 fighter from the air defense forces of the Western Military District was scrambled. After that, the crew of the fighter occupied the established zone of duty in the air.

"After the removal of foreign military aircraft from the Russian state border, the Russian fighter returned to its base airfield," the center said.

The flight of the Russian fighter was carried out in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace. No breach of the Russian border was allowed, the NDCC said.

The latest scramble comes days after the Russian defense ministry confirmed on March 14 that a US MQ-9 Reaper drone crashed in the Black Sea as a result of its own extreme maneuvers after violating airspace and carrying out its flight with transponders turned off.

US defense officials had declined at the time to offer specifics of the aircraft; however, subsequent reports later detailed that the US military had dispatched a second drone to the crash site.

ASEAN at odds with AUKUS’ wish to contain China

Last week the AUKUS security pact unveiled its first initiative. Australia committed itself to buying eight nuclear submarines over 30 years. The subs, too large for Australia's coastal waters, are designed to prowl China's coastline. Elder statesman Paul Keating described their purpose: "to screw into place the last shackle in the long chain which the Americans have laid out to contain China."

In the same week, news broke from Beijing that China had mediated the restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

We live amid "changes unseen in a century," as President Xi Jinping likes to say. A complex system such as the international order can change gradually for years until, suddenly, impossible events and configurations fall into place at blinding speed. We look back to such transitions as times of collapse and revolutionary change.

We are not in normal times. ASEAN should assess its stance toward AUKUS in the context of a fast-changing world order.

The Saudi-Iranian detente astonished the world because it was deemed impossible and made impossible within the imperial, Western order that had subordinated the region as its "Middle East," drawn its borders, delimited its possibilities, pit its people against each other and exploited, then naturalized their divisions. It heralds a new era and a new regional order and geopolitical identity for West Asia as other enmities in the region start to fall like dominos.

Only a "new type of international relations," founded on a different worldview, could have achieved this. The diplomatic principles it applied, such as non-interference and non-alignment, are favored by the non-Western world. They were declared at the Bandung Conference in 1955 and defended by the Non-Aligned Movement. They are the foreign policy principles of China, India and ASEAN. Today they have found their moment as China puts into practice its vision of a "community with a shared future for mankind."

Xi Jinping has arrived in Moscow. President Lula da Silva of Brazil plans to visit Beijing with an almost 300-strong delegation. Mexico wants to join BRICS. The world is changing fast.

Against this background, the nature of AUKUS emerges more clearly.

AUKUS is about a war against China. It was sold to Australians by telling them that the Chinese were on the way to invade them. Australia's newspapers ran a "Red Alert" series of stories describing a pending Chinese invasion, illustrated with images of a Chinese invasion force bound for Australia against a blood-red sky. As with the invasion of Iraq exactly 20 years ago, its proponents will lie to get their war.

Malaysia and Indonesia have expressed unease with AUKUS from the start. They worry it is a provocation that will trigger an arms race that leads to war. They fear it is a projection of military power, by external powers, over the South China Sea, with ASEAN as the mere ground underfoot. They are right to hold this fear.

Both have issued thinly-veiled criticism of AUKUS' lack of transparency and inclusion. Malaysia "underscored the importance of promoting transparency and confidence-building among all countries." Indonesia insisted that maintaining peace and stability is the responsibility of all countries in the region. They are right to feel excluded and left in the dark.

It has been pushed through with secrecy and high-handedness from the start. It bypassed the legislatures of all three countries and was presented as fait accompli. Australian citizens were also excluded and left in the dark.

ASEAN is also right to be skeptical that those subs will only carry conventional weapons. After all, despite the fact that Australia is treaty-bound to prohibit the "stationing of nuclear weapons," the Australian government admitted recently that it is not in a position to ask the US whether "to confirm or deny" that the bombers it bases on Australian soil are at any time nuclear-armed. You need sovereignty to keep your promises.

AUKUS is the speartip for the militarization and polarization of Southeast Asia. It is a raw application of the with-us-or-against-us logic of the rules-based order. It conceives of the region as an arena for the projection of American lethal force. The Indo-Pacific is its map for the encirclement of China with military bases and "forward deployed" assets such as nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines. In the strategic imagination of the rules-based order, Southeast Asia, larger and more populous than the EU, is just the maritime geography for the projection of a lethal threat on China.

The worldview and purpose of AUKUS are at odds with those of ASEAN. "ASEAN centrality" and the multilateral order around it can only be friction to the desperate project to contain China.

AUKUS dramatizes this desperation in defense of unipolar, white supremacy. Leaning on the internal hierarchy of the Western alliance, it summons forth the white among the white.

It is clear where ASEAN's future lies.

Read full article here.

Debunking the Chinese naval base in Cambodia narrative

On February 18, 2020, when claims were rife and abound that Dara Sakor, a development in Koh Kong will host a naval base and an airbase, a western journalist from the War Zone publication published an article in the said publication debunking the claims.

The Claim that a new Cambodian airfield is actually a Chinese base is dubious at best has been widely circulated Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp Australia. The story claims that an airfield that is under construction near Cambodia’s Dara Sakor Seashore Resort is actually a Chinese Air Base that will give China’s military greater reach throughout a critical and increasingly tense region.

However high-resolution satellite imagery does not support such a bold claim. The News.com.au story stated that, “Many of the aircraft turning bays are too small for large commercial airliners. Instead, they’re just right for fighter jets. And exactly why it needs to be 3400m long is uncertain.” “That’s far larger than even the largest civilian airliners require to land or take off. There is no significant nearby population or industrial centre. And its enormous scale goes far beyond the needs of the languishing Koh Kong resort nearby.”

This passage is littered with laughably reaching and flat-out inaccurate assumptions. A roughly 10,000-foot is not uncommon at airports that will be able to accommodate airliners, especially in an area of the world that experiences high temperatures year-round. The claim about the turning bays is also wrong. The distance from the runway edge to the turnout area’s outer edge is roughly 330 feet. This is ample room for any airliner or transport to make an about-face. For comparison, the turnout area at St. Maarten’s Princess Juliana International Airport, a famous Caribbean airstrip that hosts the largest of airliners and cargo aircraft, is roughly 300 feet wide, including the runway.

The airfield’s turnout areas are very large and can accommodate any aircraft.

The under-construction airfield’s centralized apron could presumably be used to accommodate a number of aircraft of various sizes, from helicopters, to regular regional turboprop and jet traffic, to large international charter aircraft. There are no hangar bays or other notable aircraft support improvements erected at this time that would point to a specific use for the airfield, either. The apron itself is quite small by Chinese military airfield standards. Also, there aren’t any heavy security improvements or other features that point toward the base having some sort of primary military application. There is a road direct to it from the nearby luxury resort.

In addition, a military airbase is not just built for fighters. A heavy logistics train would have to support those aircraft, including large transports and airliners, so the idea that a modern airfield would be just tailored for tactical fast jets and would not be able to accept larger aircraft is absurd and questions the writer’s knowledge on the subject and/or their sourcing.

The resort and the large dock area nearby are part of a larger Chinese investment that is tied to the Belt And Road initiative, a soft-power economic effort to increase China’s general influence abroad. At the same time, it could just as easily be an airfield being built to support local tourism and other operations. Being able to bring airline, charter, and private air traffic directly to the luxury destination would be a huge advantage to seeing it prosper.

In addition, any airfield can be potentially used for military purposes in a crisis, but if China makes it a practice of turning its foreign business investments into military capabilities, that would be pretty counter-productive to realizing future prospects.

The focus on fighter aircraft is also odd. The base presents even more utility for surveillance aircraft flights, including those by long-endurance unmanned aircraft, than short-range fighters.

So, there you have it. While it is still very possible that China could be the end-user of this airfield and Beijing has some peculiar investments in the area, the original report was reckless with its assumptions and many who read and shared the article were far too accepting and un-skeptical of those conclusions.

When the above claims failed to pan out, attention shifted to the Ream Naval base. From an alleged Chinese Airbase, attention shifted to the Ream Naval base which was soon branded as hosting a ‘secret’ Chinese naval base.

So called secret, satellite images were published to show massive construction work or so it appeared, including works to have a pier where an aircraft carrier could berth. Such atrocious allegations against a sovereign nation.

In hushed voices, certain ‘western’ diplomats pedaled the ‘secret’ naval base theory at every diplomatic gathering and event. The questions that begs for a sane answer is, if it is indeed a ‘secret’ naval base, how come satellite images are easily available? Were they not always available and accessible by commercial satellites that supposedly specialized satellites needed to be used and justified?

Are these publications not shooting themselves in their foot by claiming ‘secret’ yet have access to satellite images? If so, where is the said secrecy? Is it because the expansion and rehabilitation of the Ream base is being undertaken largely with Chinese funds and Chinese contractors?

Prime Minister Hun Sen, visibly irritated and scathing in his comments Thursday said ‘The project was kick-started in June last year in the presence of different foreign military attachés. He reaffirmed that when this project is completed, all foreign vessels will be welcome to dock at the port and conduct joint military drills.’