Whither Washington
US increasingly isolated, Brazil trades in peace, EU officials flock to Beijing, Australia says no to Brussels and yes to Beijing, US thinks UN pro-Moscow, Russia ASEAN trade
UPDATE: Escalating tensions between the US and China will provide an uncomfortable backdrop to the meetings as policymakers grapple with economic uncertainty in the wake of stubborn inflation, banking sector jitters and Russia’s gains in Ukraine.
The Brazilian president hopes to get Xi Jinping to play a leadership role in resolving the war in Ukraine. For his part, the Chinese leader wants to get Lula to join China's 'Belt and Road Initiative.'
On the heels of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, EU top officials including German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will visit Beijing.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will not attend this year’s NATO summit, as the international security situation surrounding its proxy war on Russia deteriorates and China’s mediation role gains more traction.
The US government believes the UN Secretary General is too willing to accommodate Russian interests. Washington has been spying on Antonio Guterres as several leaked documents describe private communications and candid observations from Mr Guterres about the war in Ukraine and a number of African leaders.
Russia and ASEAN agreed to enhance and widen economic cooperation including the adoption of a revised ASEAN-Russia Trade and Investment Cooperation Work Program for the 2021-25 period. St.Petersburg’s role, as the entry point for Chinese and Malaysian products destined for the Russian market and the exit point for Russian exports to these same markets, is expanding rapidly.
US alone in clash with China
Global finance ministers and central bankers are in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings this week. For the world’s two largest economies, there’s no thaw in sight. Escalating tensions between the US and China will provide an uncomfortable backdrop to the meetings as policymakers grapple with economic uncertainty in the wake of stubborn inflation, banking sector jitters and Russia’s gains in Ukraine. Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-Wen’s visit with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not helped the US reputation for unrelenting political, economic and military provocations in Europe and the Pacific.
As China moves to take a larger role in multilateral organisations like the World Bank, US allies are becoming more vocal in their discomfort with the potential economic pain that could be in store if the Biden administration takes further action to isolate China.
“There are virtually no US allies that are really all-in on the idea of a cold war with China,” Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told MM over the weekend. “The politics around the China relationship — which is incredibly toxic and hostile in the United States — that’s generally not true [for] really any ally.”
— Case in point: On the heels of last week’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe should steer clear of any potential conflict between the global superpowers.
“The question Europeans need to answer ... is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No.” “The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction.”
And this: “Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,” Macron said.
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Brazil trades for peace in Beijing
The Brazilian president hopes to get Xi Jinping to play a leadership role in resolving the war in Ukraine. For his part, the Chinese leader wants to get Lula to join China's 'Belt and Road Initiative.'After a first trip planned at the end of March, but canceled due to pneumonia, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was due to arrive in China yesterday, April 12, for a three-day official visit, during which he is expected to meet with several political leaders, including President Xi Jinping on Friday 14 April.
The speed with which the two sides were able to set a new date speaks volumes of the importance that both Beijing and Brasilia attach to the visit. Brazil is an important trading partner for China. Brazilian exports to China, mainly agricultural products and minerals, amount to nearly RMB618 billion (€82 billion), more than three times France's exports of RMB618 billion (€24 billion). Almost a third of Brazilian exports go to China. China is even Brazil's leading trading partner, far ahead of the United States (11% of Brazilian exports) and its neighbor Argentina (4%).
In order to build a strong political alliance with China, Lula must ensure that Brazil engages with China on multiple levels, including trade and investment but also science, technology and innovation. Currently, Brazil's trade with China is concentrated on just a few commodities, such as soybeans, iron ore and crude oil, which underscores the need for the diversification of their trade and a more balanced economic relationship.
In addition, Brazil should actively seek Chinese expertise and investment in key sectors such as agribusiness, infrastructure and logistics. By leveraging China's experience in these areas, Brazil can enhance its domestic capabilities, improve its competitiveness and create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation.
Considering the relevance of the Belt and Road Initiative to China's international trade and diplomacy, China should also urge Brazil to be directly engaged in this international cooperation platform. Among the more than 150 countries that are signatories to the initiative, 22 are from Latin America and the Caribbean. However, Brazil is not yet one of them. Moreover, the two nations should also actively participate in and support the reform of global governance institutions to address pressing global issues such as poverty alleviation, climate change and joining hands to promote an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
Washington and Brussels will be closely monitoring the two countries' statements on Ukraine. President Lula has already stated publicly that he wants to discuss with Xi China's role in resolving the conflict. The Brazilian president told reporters on April 6 that he would suggest to his counterpart that he take a leading role in a group of countries urging Russia and Ukraine to seek a diplomatic solution to the war. Lula is confident that he will succeed. "I am confident that when you ask me the question [about the war] after I return from China, I will announce the creation of a group that will discuss peace."
On a personal level, as he had already told President Joe Biden during his visit to the US in February (and then reminded French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz), the Brazilian still refuses to send munitions to Ukraine "in the name of peace." Keen to adopt a balanced position, he also said he thought that "Putin cannot continue to occupy Ukraine," and suggested to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he give up Crimea because he "cannot have it all."
While the Brazilian president’s ambition to help bring peace to Ukraine may generate some controversy, geopolitics hardly ever affects Brazilians’ approval ratings at home. Yet a growing number of analysts fear that Brazil’s activism vis-à-vis the war may negatively affect the country’s reputation in Europe and the United States, where concerns are growing that Lula contributes to legitimizing Russia’s narrative that the West is supposedly not interested in negotiating a peace agreement. Announcing a peace plan while in Beijing—a staunch ally of Moscow—would certainly consolidate this perception.
Still, on the international stage, Lula remains the guest everyone wants at the party: After Beijing, the president has a stopover in the Emirates—where he hopes to announce more investments—and in just a few weeks, Lula has trips planned to Portugal, Spain as well as an invitation to attend the G7 Summit in May.
Read more here, here and here.
Senior EU officials flock to Beijing
On the heels of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, EU top diplomat Josep Borrell and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will visit China, Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday. However, later on Wednesday, Borrell said on Twitter that he has postponed the planned trip to China, after testing positive for COVID-19. However, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will still pay an official visit to China from April 13 to 15. During the visit, China’s FM Qin Gang and Baerbock will co-chair the sixth round of the China-Germany Strategic Dialogue on Diplomacy and Security.
Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at Wednesday's routine press briefing that Qin and Baerbock will hold a comprehensive, deep conversation on China-Germany and China-Europe relations, as well as regional and international hot issues.
Europe is now engaged in a heated debate over "strategic autonomy," spurred by Macron's previous remarks urging Europe to reduce its reliance on the US and to be cautious of being dragged into a conflict between Beijing and Washington over the Taiwan question. There is strong support for Macron's plea inside Europe. President of the European Council Charles Michel told media on Wednesday that European leaders are becoming increasingly favorable toward Macron's push for "strategic autonomy" away from the US.
Defying some criticism on his remarks, Macron again emphasized the concept of "strategic autonomy" for Europe in a speech at the Nexus Institute in The Hague, Netherlands on Tuesday. Reiterating "strategic autonomy" amid swelling controversy in Europe demonstrates Macron's clear vision for the future of Europe and for a multipolar world.
President Macron's remarks have caused continued negativity from some US politicians, who worry such voices will wake up more European countries and exert a heavy blow to the Biden administration's hegemony-centered foreign policy. The US' "coercive act" to pressure Europe to act as its vassal in a geopolitical game will only double down on Europe's determination to pursue independence from Washington.
Although the debate is about Europe's future, one of the most vocal critics is the US. Mike Gallagher, chair of the House Select Committee on China, told Fox News on Monday that Macron's statements "were embarrassing, they were disgraceful… and very geopolitically naive." US senator Marco Rubio said in a tweet on Sunday that "If Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is they're not going to pick sides between the US and China over Taiwan… maybe we should basically say we're going to focus on Taiwan and the threats that China poses, and you guys handle Ukraine and Europe."
The US' coercive policies and unequal and unfair treatment of Europe have been laid bare by Washington's uneasiness at seeing Europe's pursuit of autonomy. The US reaction should open Europe's eyes wide to see what transatlantic allies really mean to the US, and encourage the continent's determination to further reduce its reliance on Washington. Experts believe more European officials will continue to visit China, elevating Beijing's relationship with Europe via dialogue, especially when others have echoed Macron's latest call for European "strategic autonomy," which can facilitate Europe to form an objective view of China.
Read more here.
Australia: no to Brussels, yes to Beijing
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will not attend this year’s NATO summit, as the international security situation surrounding its proxy war on Russia deteriorates. This follows Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s decision to send a junior bureaucrat from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the deputy ambassador to Brussels, where NATO is headquartered, despite her Asia-Pacific counterparts attending to help coordinate the West’s responses to the war in Ukraine and China’s increasingly important mediation role.
Behind closed doors there will be disappointment in Brussels. NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg had invited the leaders of Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, the so-called AP4, to the trans-Atlantic bloc’s annual gathering in Vilnius mid-July and last week’s meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. However, following the French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent comments made after his visit to China, urging Europe to reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting involved in any conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan, Albanese has realised that the tables are turning on the US-led proxy war in Ukraine and belligerence over Taiwan.
The Australian prime minister’s decision to snub NATO can also be attributed to the International Monetary Fund’s prediction that the next five years would produce the weakest economic growth the world has seen in more than three decades. Official and unofficial trade barriers with China cost Australian exporters an estimated RMB64 billion (AUD$14 billion) a year in products including beef, seafood, and wood.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised his concerns about trade in November when he took part in the first formal bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by an Australian government leader since 2016. In December, Penny Wong became the first Australian foreign minister to visit China in four years. In February, Australian and Chinese trade ministers held their first bilateral meeting since 2019, showing signs of improved relations since the China bashing liberal government was voted out after nine years in power.
China recently lifted trade restrictions on Australian coal that were first imposed in late 2020. Trade Minister Don Farrell said Australia hoped the review would become a template for resolving other trade disputes with China, particularly over wine. While barley growers have found other markets, Australian wine producers have struggled to find alternative buyers after China imposed trade barriers in late 2020.
On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia had reached an agreement with China that “creates a pathway for the resolution of the dispute over Australian barley.” Over the past few days Australia suspended a complaint to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in a bid to reopen the Chinese market to Australian barley for the first time in three years in the new government’s latest step toward repairing relations with Beijing.
The Australian government revealed the agreement a day after China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu will visit Australia and Fiji this week. Ma plans to hold a new round of political consultations with Australian officials, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Monday during a regular media briefing.
Pentagon thinks UN pro-Moscow
The US government believes the UN Secretary General is too willing to accommodate Russian interests, according to fresh revelations in classified documents leaked online. The files suggest Washington has been closely monitoring Antonio Guterres as several leaked documents describe private communications and candid observations from Mr Guterres about the war in Ukraine and a number of African leaders.
One leaked document focuses on the Black Sea grain deal, brokered by the UN and were "undermining broader efforts to hold Moscow accountable for its actions in Ukraine." Saying he wouldn't comment on leaked documents, one senior official said the UN was "driven by the need to mitigate the impact of the war on the world's poorest."
UN officials are clearly unhappy with America's interpretation of Mr Guterres' efforts. And they say that Mr Guterres has made his opposition to Russia's war very clear. Another document from mid-February describes a frank conversation between Mr Guterres and his deputy, Amina Mohammed. Mr Guterres expressed "dismay" at a call from the EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, for Europe to produce more weapons and ammunition as a result of the war in Ukraine.
It's well known that America is among a number of nations which routinely spy on the UN - but when the products of that espionage come to light, it's highly embarrassing and, for the world's leading diplomat, potentially damaging.
Read more here.
Russia ASEAN Trade
Russia’s JSC Petrolesport located in the Great Port of St. Petersburg and part of the Global Ports group, will begin servicing a new direct container route from China and Malaysia from May. The operator of the service is the Dubai based, international sea carrier Mountain Air Shipping (MAS). JSC stated that “As part of a joint service with Safetrans and OVP Shipping, MAS will provide regular delivery of imports to Russia and export shipments of Russian manufacturers’ products via the Baltic basin” This means that St.Petersburg is both the entry point for Chinese and Malaysian products destined for the Russian market, and the exit point for Russian exports to these same markets.
The first ship as part of this new direct service left China on April 6. The voyage takes about 37 days. The route will be served by six vessels, with ships called at Petrolesport twice a month. Earlier in 2023, JSC First Container Terminals also launched a regular container service of direct communication with China, the operator of which is the Chinese transport and logistics company Torgmoll.
Global Ports is the largest operator of container terminals in Russia. The company operates container and multipurpose terminals in Russia (Petrolesport, First Container Terminal, Ust-Luga Container Terminal and Moby Dick in the Baltic Sea, Eastern Stevedoring Company in the Far East) and two container terminals in Finland – in Helsinki and Kotka (under the management of Multi-Link Terminals Oy, a joint venture of Global Ports and CMA Terminals). It also owns the inland terminal Yanino Logistics Park near St. Petersburg.
The introduction of new direct routes from China and Malaysia are indicative of how supply chains between Russia and Asia are developing. Russia-China bilateral trade reached US$200 billion in 2022 and is set to see further increases, while Russia-Malaysia trade has reached about US$2.5 billion last year.
Malaysia is set to increase agricultural product exports to Russia, including tropical fruits and seafood, with Russia to increase exports of halal products and soya to Malaysia. Both countries signed off a trade MoU in January looking to develop trade relationships in modern farming, seedling technology, fishing, and aquaculture. Successful trade increases between Russia and Malaysia could lead to a future Malaysia-EAEU FTA. ASEAN is a priority market for Russian exporters as the country turns its trade attention towards Asia.
Russia and ASEAN agreed to enhance and widen economic cooperation at the 10th ASEAN Economic Ministers (AEM)-Russia Consultations held in September 2021, including the adoption of a revised ASEAN-Russia Trade and Investment Cooperation Work Program for the 2021-25 period.
At the meetings, ASEAN and Russia agreed on a revised ASEAN-Russia Trade and Investment Cooperation Roadmap (the “Roadmap”), which is a high-level agreement setting the goals for trade between the two parties. The ASEAN-Russia Trade and Investment Cooperation Work Program (the “Program”) is an associated agreement – also updated at the meetings – that guides the implementation of the Roadmap.
Russia, while the principal member of the EAEU, is also a dialogue partner with ASEAN, giving it a seat at the table and therefore able to understand the mechanisms and dynamics of Southeast Asia. Russia actively participates in ASEAN-led multilateral mechanisms, including the East Asia Summit, and the ASEAN Regional Forum amongst others.
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