Yes and No
Thailand teeters in coalition mode, Cambodia and BRICS dialogue, Central Bank Digital Currencies? War on Terror killed 4.5 million? Language and AI in Chinese characters
UPDATE: The last time voters headed to the polls in Thailand was in 2019. However, after four years of a functioning parliamentary democracy, in Sunday’s election the two US backed parties, both run by corrupt billionaires, have received a majority of votes. However, building a coalition is not so easy.
As early as 2014, Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen had stated that the creation of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), could ease Cambodia’s dependence on institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
When First Republic Bank failed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation organized a shotgun sale of its assets to JPMorgan Chase. That violated the FDIC’s cardinal rule that no bank owning more than 10% of insured US deposits should be allowed to expand further by absorbing another US bank.
This report reviews the latest research to examine the causal pathways that have led to an estimated 3.6-3.7 million indirect deaths in post-9/11 war zones, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The total death toll in these war zones could be at least 4.5-4.6 million and counting, but far more, especially children, have been killed by the reverberating effects of war, such as the spread of disease.
Language, and its main components, reading, writing and speaking, are not merely about communicating thoughts and ideas but about understanding and better appreciating the essence of the culture that invented them. Only then can we deeply appreciate the essence and the soul of a people by knowing the intricacies of both its language and culture. Artificial Intelligence or AI will certainly help us communicate better and better, but it may never help us know enough about the cultural DNA embedded in Chinese characters.
Thailand teeters
The last time voters headed to the polls in Thailand was in 2019. However, after four years of a functioning parliamentary democracy, in Sunday’s election the two US backed parties, both run by corrupt billionaires, have received a majority of votes.
The Move Forward party is backed by a billionaire Pita Limjaroenrat with close ties to the US government and looks set to gain the most seats in the new parliament. Close behind is the Pheu Thai party of the similarly US backed and corrupt Shinawatra dynasty. Following them in third place is Bhumjaithai. This rural-based, more traditional party of patronage politics had recently been the previous government’s coalition partner.
Trailing far behind, in fourth and fifth place, are the two governing parties: Palang Pracharat, headed by former deputy prime minister and army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, and United Thai Nation, headed by current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, leader of the 2014 coup.
The election result reflects the success of the youth orientated political socialisation programs funded and directed from Washington over recent years in support for Move Forward, which had won far less support prior to the pandemic. Move Forward looks likely to take all of but one of the 33 Bangkok seats in parliament, which in the past was seen as the stronghold of Pheu Thai.
Moreover, the Thai result, which has all the hallmarks of color revolution, could spillover into the politics of ASEAN, Myanmar and Cambodia, something the US government has long sought. Move Forward’s Harvard-educated former businessman Pita Limjaroenrat is the beneficiary of considerable material and financial support from the US and seeks to limit the influence of China.
Prayuth became prime minister in May 2014, when as a military officer he undertook a coup against Yingluck Shinawatra’s corrupt US client government. Prayuth was unable to advance the economy due to the pandemic and the opposition parties have made much of blaming him and not the pandemic on the mediocre performance of the economy. Thais may also feel that the military’s job in overseeing a monarchical transition from Rama IX to Rama X is complete.
However, the election result also doesn’t guarantee Thailand’s opposition forces will be able to form a government. The 2017 constitution gives the 250 members of the senate, who are appointed and not elected much like the UK’s House of Lords, to participate in a joint sitting to choose the next prime minister. Thus, the current governing parties can still construct a coalition to retain government.
If they received the support of the parties that made up the previous government (Bhumjaithai and the Democrats), they could form a ruling coalition with the roughly 170 seats they all won in total in Sunday’s vote, along with the support of the 250 senators. However, the minority government would be unable to pass laws without opposition support and subject to no-confidence motions. However, opposition parliamentarians are allowed to cross the floor and may also seek ministerial positions and build a more consensus driven parliament less driven by US desires to limit China’s role in the economy.
The opposition parties may attempt to form a coalition, but can Pheu Thai accept Pita as prime minister, rather than one its own three candidates, Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra or Chaikasem Nitisiri ? Would Pheu Thai try to elevate Paetongtarn - the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – into the role? The chances of both parties forming a working coalition would be strengthened if they could bring Bhumjaithai into the government. That party has swung between both sides of the political spectrum over the decades.
However, the formation of a new government opposed to the involvement of the military in politics denies Thai history and the role of the King. Pheu Thai would need to agree to Move Forward’s controversial policy of reforming Thailand’s lese majeste law. Move Forward wants to change the law, which criminalises insulting the monarchy to ensure the law is not used to attack political opponents. The party insists this is not to decrease the Kings influence over the economy and the corporate sector, in which both billionaires operate, or a step towards becoming a republic.
Another challenge facing the opposition parties is the possibility the conservative establishment in Thailand will find a way to invalidate the election result through court action. There are strong precedents for this, as previous corrupt US-backed parties have been dissolved through court rulings. Pita is currently facing a lawsuit related to his possession of shares in a media company. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is facing litigation related to allowing “outsiders” to run its affairs.
The Electoral Commission has performed competently in counting votes and does not have to decide how to implement a complicated formula to allocate party-list seats. This means the joint sitting of parliament should happen faster and a coalition will soon emerge.
While all eyes are focussed on coalition building and who will form the next government, in Beijing, the instability within Thailand is seen to involve spillover effects on other ASEAN states and may lead to anti-China policies and further US militarisation of the region. In Washington, the National Endowment for Democracy, the State Department and president Jo Biden see Thailand as a success and are preparing to engineer more color revolutions across ASEAN to counter China. ASEAN centrality and the prosperity and freedom of the regions peoples are the farthest thought from the Biden administration’s minds.
The Editor
Why Cambodia should be a BRICS dialogue partner
By Digby Wren
As early as 2014, Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen had stated that the creation of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), could ease Cambodia’s dependence on institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Membership of the Shanghai based NDB is open to all United Nations (UN) members and its $100 billion of capital is devoted to providing funding to the world’s least developed economies and to assist in development projects that foster regional and global growth. While the NDB does not replace the role of World Bank and the IMF, it adds another well-funded development bank to help developing countries and reduce the monopoly of Washington based financial institutions and the US dollar.
The BRICS economies represent 31.5% of global GDP and a population of 3.2 billion, however, the group has only 15% of the voting rights at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
In 2023, the BRICS economies surpassed the Group of Seven (G7) in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), calculated on purchasing power parity (PPP), to contribute 31.5 percent of global GDP, compared to 30.7 percent by G7 countries.
The G7 group of countries includes advanced economies like the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and Japan. The BRICS, on the other hand, are home to 41 percent of the global population, mostly developing economies, and account for 16 percent of global trade.
Cambodia’s stellar performance of 7% annual GDP growth over the previous decade and resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic is vulnerable to weakening demand from both the US and EU.
Moreover, as Cambodia moves toward middle income country status it will require increased development inputs that are less susceptible to the political conditions demanded by Washington and Brussels.
By conducting a full-scale proxy war against Russia, the United States and NATO have exacerbated global tensions, destabilised global supply chains and exported inflationary pressures. However, it is the G7 and US allies that face recession and falling standards of living due to persistent inflation, coupled with relentless rate hikes by central banks that have severely impacted Europe.
Notably, the IMF expects negative growth for the UK and positive growth for Russia in 2023. The US is expected to be the best-performing economy among the G7 nations, with anaemic growth of less than one percent and persistently high inflation of 4-5%.
On the other hand, ASEAN, China and India are expected to lead global growth with five to seven percent GDP increases and relatively low and stable inflation.
In 2022 Cambodia was invited to join the high-level dialogue of the 14th BRICS Summit, which sought to ‘Foster a Global Development Partnership for the New Era to Jointly Implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’.
However, Cambodia has not yet formally applied for BRICS or NDB membership even as 19 other countries have requested membership consideration during the forthcoming June 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa.
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediated by China, laid the foundation for the two west Asian powers to be among the thirteen countries that have formally sought to join BRICS and six more that have informally requested membership.
Amongst the other aspirants are Argentina, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, Indonesia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe.
Cambodia’s multilateral diplomacy, which has benefited enormously from its neutral stance and membership of ASEAN and RCEP as well as its FTAs with Korea and China, can also benefit from membership in both the BRICS and NDB and build on the dialogue partnership with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Cambodia’s existing multilateral network and a new partnership with BRICS and the NDB offer security, economic, educational and cultural benefits that cannot be matched by the G7, EU or the United States. Cambodia requires increased investment in education and science, research and development, engineering and construction, industry and manufacturing, telecommunications and electric mobility, agricultural processing and logistics, and many other sectors.
Like the AIIB, with which Cambodia has a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the NDB is an example of a Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) that focuses on integrating financial development with economic growth.
The NDB is a borrowing-country-led multilateral development bank with equal quota allocation, the country system principle, and local currency financing and capital market financing. It gives priority to issues like inclusive finance and infrastructure investment as well as funding for manufacturing sectors with strong mutual benefits, such as renewable energy, in which countries like Cambodia have already developed capacities along various links in the renewables value chain.
By joining the BRICS and NDB Cambodia will be building on the success of its 100 plus BRI funded infrastructure projects in the country and ensure that its formidable economic progress will continue into the decades ahead.
In May of 2022, Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen urged ASEAN and BRICS to urgently restore multilateralism, which prioritises unity when addressing challenges, especially given recent troubling and rapid developments in global affairs.
By furthering its integration through BRICS and NDB membership, Cambodia also strengthens its ‘neutral’ foreign policy and gains added voice in global governance institutions. Moreover, the combination of BRICS and the ASEAN, SCO and RCEP blocs, provide more institutional alternatives for transforming global economic governance in favor of Cambodia and other developing countries.
In a rapidly changing, uncertain and complex world, multilateral mechanisms such as ASEAN, BRICS and the SCO need closer integration and greater cooperation efforts that prioritise United Nations unity and address regional challenges while meeting the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and advancing the core principles and objectives set out in the UN Charter.
Read more here.
Who’s Afraid of Central Bank Digital Currencies?
By Yanis Varoufakis
When First Republic Bank failed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation organized a shotgun sale of its assets to JPMorgan Chase. That violated the FDIC’s cardinal rule that no bank owning more than 10% of insured US deposits should be allowed to expand further by absorbing another US bank. But, because sparing taxpayers the cost of another bank bailout took precedence, the US authorities permitted – indeed helped – America’s largest bank, already a too-big-to-fail (TBTF) institution, to grow even larger.
In a rare show of bipartisanship, Democrats and Republicans alike applauded the FDIC’s actions, rejoicing that JPMorgan had stepped in with a “private sector” plan to avoid burdening the taxpayers. Unfortunately, the truth was less heroic: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s ubiquitous boss, negotiated a $50 billion credit line and a loss-sharing deal with the FDIC that will result in a $13 billion loss to US taxpayers. In short, the resolution of First Republic burdened Americans both with a hefty tax bill and with the larger systemic risks implicit in a bigger TBTF bank.
First Republic was small, but its fate is a harbinger of bigger things. Owing to the rise in prices and (to a lesser extent) wages, the US public debt as a share of national income shrank. But with the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates to arrest inflation, the value of Treasury bills sitting on the banks’ books declined (why buy a second-hand, low-yield bond when you can buy a higher-yielding fresh one?). And since most of the safe assets held by banks are Treasury bills, bankruptcies like those of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic ensued.
This dynamic is unlikely to end any time soon. More banks will fail, which will help TBTF banks pose even larger systemic threats to society. Besides misleading the public that their taxes are being spared, the authorities are setting the stage for a future banking crisis, which will force an exasperated public to pay even more.
There is an alternative to the tax-funded absorption of small banks like First Republic by megabanks like JPMorgan. And it would not shift the cost of backing uninsured deposits to the taxpayer: Fed deposit accounts or, equivalently, the gradual rollout of a Fed-issued digital dollar.
Consider how a US central bank digital currency, or CBDC, would have worked out in the case of First Republic. Instead of having the FDIC guarantee the bank’s deposits with taxpayer money, the Fed creates digital accounts (or wallets) for First Republic’s depositors and credits their balance to them. Depositors can keep the money in their new Fed account, making payments from it using a username and PIN provided by the Fed, or transfer the balance to any other bank account.
While on their Fed account, their deposits are de facto guaranteed by the Fed without any need to burden taxpayers or levy charges to other banks. If the Fed is worried that, by boosting the money supply, the associated increase in its balance sheet will be inflationary, it can sterilize the new money by selling an equivalent value of some of the mountain of assets (such as mortgages and bonds) it already owns.
At the end of the day, taxpayers are fully shielded while megabanks, like JPMorgan, are not allowed to grow even larger. In fact, Wall Street finally faces welcome competition from the Fed accounts, forcing them to raise their game.
I imagine outraged opponents of CBDCs rushing to their keyboards to denounce me for aiding Big Brother’s nefarious effort to gain control over citizens’ every transaction. But they are barking up the wrong tree. Digital money is already here, increasingly eradicating cash payments. At the drop of a hat, the IRS, the FBI, and even local police have instant access to our payments. Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, did not need a CBDC to freeze the bank accountsof protesting anti-vaccination truckers. Banks and Big Tech are regularly cutting off, or refusing to trade with, people whose views are deemed inappropriate.
In other words, we already live in a techno-feudal society where we need to ask our bank, and indirectly our government, for permission to pay. Our digital payments can be centrally interdicted by credit card companies, banks, bureaucrats, and other unaccountable, opaque intermediaries.
Perhaps counterintuitively, CBDCs can enhance citizens’ privacy relative to the status quo and shield us from exorbitantly centralized power. Checks and balances can be introduced based on two separate and siloed data-management systems. The system that manages Fed accounts can be made totally anonymous (just as crypto accounts are anonymous and identified by a long string of numbers) while a separate system supervised by relevant authorities can check for illicit activity such as tax evasion and money laundering. Thus, a proper and democratically controlled CBDC rollout can bring the combined benefits of strengthening tax collection, fighting deflation, and enhancing protection against Big Brother (and his many little brothers).
So, why so much venom against CBDCs by those untroubled by the surveillance and control already exercised over us by Wall Street-controlled digital money? Who is really afraid of CBDCs?
Once upon a time, the greed of tobacco companies was channeled through libertarian outrage over the restriction of smokers’ freedom to choose cancer. This time, the outrage is serving the interests of bankers panicking at the prospect of Fed accounts. Dimon and other masters of the TBTF universe are right to be scared, because a Fed CBDC would threaten their empire building. And bankers around the world are right to fear that many of their lucrative services would no longer be required. With those services – holding deposits, processing payments, and so on – “disintermediated,” they would suddenly be unable to hold societies hostage.
Read more here.
US War on Terror Killed 4.5 Million People
War’s destruction of economies, public services, infrastructure, and the environment leads to deaths that occur long after bombs drop and grow in scale over time. This report reviews the latest research to examine the causal pathways that have led to an estimated 3.6-3.7 million indirect deaths in post-9/11 war zones, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The total death toll in these war zones could be at least 4.5-4.6 million and counting, though the precise mortality figure remains unknown. Some people were killed in the fighting, but far more, especially children, have been killed by the reverberating effects of war, such as the spread of disease.
The report examines the devastating toll of war on human health, whoever the combatant, whatever the compounding factor, in the most violent conflicts in which the U.S. government has been engaged in the name of counterterrorism since September 11, 2001. Rather than teasing apart who, what, or when is to blame, this report shows that the post-9/11 wars are implicated in many kinds of deaths, making clear that the impacts of war's ongoing violence are so vast and complex that they are unquantifiable.
In laying out how the post-9/11 wars have led to illness and indirect deaths, the report’s goal is to build greater awareness of the fuller human costs of these wars and support calls for the United States and other governments to alleviate the ongoing losses and suffering of millions in current and former warzones. The report highlights many long- term and underacknowledged consequences of war for human health, emphasizing that some groups, particularly women and children, suffer the brunt of these ongoing impacts.
Why learning Mandarin is still critical in the age of AI
By Harvey Dzodin
Language, and its main components, reading, writing and speaking, are not merely about communicating thoughts and ideas but about understanding and better appreciating the essence of the culture that invented them. Only then can we deeply appreciate the essence and the soul of a people by knowing the intricacies of both its language and culture. Artificial Intelligence or AI will certainly help us communicate better and better, but it may never help us know enough about the cultural DNA embedded in Chinese characters.
The world’s most popular languages are English and Mandarin. But being the most popular doesn’t mean that they are similar. I’m not even talking about the fact that these two languages look, sound and are completely different, that’s obviously true. I’m talking about the fact that English as a first or native language is spoken by only 20% of English speakers, while 80% learn English as a second or third language making it today’s lingua franca. In the case of Mandarin, however, almost all of the speakers are Chinese people in China or in the Chinese diaspora. So English is the common language bridging many countries, while Mandarin is not generally so because it’s mostly confined within a single, albeit, huge nation.
If we want to understand China, cooperate with it, do business with it or manage our fraught relations with it, we need to know its language and culture. This profound imbalance makes no sense in our 21st-century world when China has resumed the powerful position it held for millennia as a global leader in commerce, culture, thought and science. China is now the world’s second-largest economy, and the first in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. China turns out the most Nobel Prize quality scientific papers of any nation. It’s a nation that has to be reckoned with, not marginalized, encircled or stigmatized.
It’s a scientific fact that when it comes to language learning, earlier is better because learning is easier. It’s because of the way young brains develop. Learning a different language results in more brain synapses or connections being formed, and this in turn has been shown to have a positive impact on cognitive abilities, including better memory, attention, and problem-solving skills. And in an increasingly more competitive world, who doesn’t need these skills?
It’s no wonder that even former US President Trump’s granddaughter, Arabella Rose Kushner, began learning Mandarin at age of three, and became fluent at seven years old. She can converse fluently in Mandarin, and she sings Chinese songs and recites Chinese poetry.
Several years ago I was privileged to address a large group of translators and interpreters in Jilin. I warned them that they needed a Plan B because technology was coming for most of their jobs. Now, in the Age of AI, while it’s true that AI may soon replace the need for many human translators and interpreters, it’s still critical for foreigners to learn Mandarin because it’s unlikely that AI will ever be able to encapsulate the wide sweep of Chinese history and culture embedded in Chinese characters.
No matter at what age learning takes place, however, knowing Mandarin and Chinese culture can open up new social and career opportunities in and outside of China. These include in such diverse fields as commerce, diplomacy and trade, to mention just a few.
Having a Harvard MBA is nice, but in China, it’s simply not enough on its own to compete. Why? Even more so than in the west, one of the main building blocks of Chinese personal and business culture is guanxi, or having strong relationship networks. It’s a Confucian element that was long ago hardwired into China’s DNA. Using a smartphone as a linguistic intermediary just doesn’t cut it! In fact, it may be a barrier to building deep friendships, trust and understanding.
Based on my observations and personal experiences, while it’s possible for foreigners to do business in China, either not speaking the language or not understanding the culture puts a foreigner at a significant disadvantage. And not knowing either is a recipe for disaster. Take my word for it, relying on intermediaries, even trusted ones, puts one in an inferior position in what’s already a very complex and challenging business environment.
This is vitally important now that East-West relations are so rocky. At the moment people-to-people diplomacy is one of our best remaining hopes of building international understanding and cooperation.
Albert Einstein was once asked what weapons would be used to fight World War III. He answered that he didn’t know but that he was certain that World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones. Frankly, I think that Einstein’s prediction was wildly overoptimistic. To help ensure that Einstein was wrong, we must try harder to understand each other and to see that we’re much more the same than we are different. The absolute best way to do that is to understand each other better, and for foreigners, this includes knowing both Mandarin and Chinese culture. AI software will never ever replace this need!