War and Peace
Post-conflict societies in post-colonial states and the rise of China are in stark contrast to what Anglo-American narratives portray. Is it hubris or blindness or both?
UPDATE: The Long Mekong Daily Monday edition is a hopeful image of the Global South and a bleak summary of Washington’s world view.
Victory Day in Cambodia serves is but one exemplar of post-conflict success. China is the exemplar for the rise of post-colonial and global south countries. India dreams of gaining a permanent security council seat through multilateral, multiplexial and multipolar manoeuvring, having overtaken the UK economy recently - Brexit may be viewed as a last gasp attempt to keep its P5 seat.
Meanwhile, the US seems to be living in a fantasy of past glories and endless Hollywood attraction, but its global military activities, bloated budgets and debt fuelled excesses are in the real world of declining G7 living standards, domestic decay and Global South opposition.
Cambodia's Economy Expected to Grow around 5.5% in 2022 and 6.6% in 2023; Says PM Hun Sen
Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen said that after the success of COVID19 crisis, Cambodian economy is expected to grow at around 5.5 percent in 2022 and is projected to grow at 6.6 percent in 2023. The premier spoke during the 44th anniversary of January 7 Victory Day, held on Saturday morning (Jan 7) at Diamond Island.
"The fight against the deadly COVID19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021 has scored success through proper leadership, effective implementation of sharp strategies and measures, and active participation of the people, who have strengthened the people's health protection foundation to ensure the process of economic restoration and recovery after the COVID19 crisis," the premier underscored.
"The economic sector has recovered rapidly due to the proactive efforts and ownership of the Royal Government through the introduction of timely measures to maintain socio-economic stability. On this basis, the Cambodian economy is expected to grow at around 5.5 percent in 2022 and is projected to grow at 6.6 percent in 2023," the premier continued.
At the same time, people's lives have been stable, especially the poor and vulnerable who have been severely affected by the COVID19 crisis, as well as people who are vulnerable to the pressures of rising global commodity prices and those who are affected by flood through the implementation of social intervention programs and measures in a timely manner.
In 2023, the salaries of civil servants and the armed forces will be raised to another level, as well as the pensions of former civil servants and veterans will be adjusted and increased, particularly the minimum wage for workers in textile, garment and footwear sectors has also been jacked up to USD 200, along with continuing reception of other benefits from the implementation of the Royal Government's social protection policy.
Read the full article here.
High Expectations - India’s Global South Summit
The gathering of so many countries for apolitical and geo-economic purposes proves that the vast majority of humanity wants mutually beneficial development that unites the world instead of more geopolitical competition that’ll only tear it apart.
India announced on Friday that it’ll virtually host the Voice Of Global South Summiton 12-13 January, which aligns with Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious vision for his country to lead the developing world amidst the global systemic transition to multiplexity that unprecedentedly accelerated last year. More than 120 states are invited to participate in the ten sessions that’ll brainstorm ways for this category of countries to collectively pool their efforts in pursuit of the shared goal of improving their people’s lives.
The lingering consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the emerging ones connected with climate change, continued difficulties servicing debt, and the interconnected food and fuel crises catalyzed by the West’s anti-Russian sanctions are all expected to figure prominently on the agenda. As the world’s largest developing country and this year’s G20 chairman, India is uniquely positioned to give a global voice to its peers’ concerns and ensure that tangible action is taken to deal with their shared challenges.
Furthermore, it deserves to be mentioned that India’s principled neutrality has already reaped the grand strategic dividend of making it the kingmaker in the New Cold Warbetween the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the jointly BRICS- & SCO-led Global South of which it’s a part. The pragmatic path pioneered by India in keeping a foot in each de facto bloc without doing so at the other’s expense is worthy of emulation by its peers since it’s the best way to maximise their sovereignty during these chaotic times.
Read the full article here.
China times two: The worldwide spread of progress
Over the first two decades of the 21st century, more than two billion people lived in microregions that became blue, achieving life expectancy of more than 72.5 years and income greater than $8,300. In this chapter, we examine the development of the microregions they inhabit.
Overall, the global population living in blue micro-regions increased from 1.3 billion in 2000 to 3.5 billion in 2019, with micro-regions newly crossing the blue threshold driving most of the growth during that period. Micro-regions home to 2.0 billion surpassed the blue threshold, while micro-regions that were already blue in 2000 increased their population by an additional 0.2 billion.
Over half of these two billion people were Chinese. But progress into the blue zone was more than a China story. Some 920 million people lived in 8,000 microregions outside China that became blue—almost as many as made that journey within China. Every subcontinent had microregions that turned blue. In fact, they spread across 75 nations, and their residents often represented only a fraction of the populations in the countries where they lived.
Read full story here.
Peak China: Joseph Nye may be living in an imaginary USA?
The failure of China’s zero-COVID policy is leading to a reassessment of Chinese power. Until recently, many expected China’s GDP to surpass that of the United States by 2030 or soon thereafter. But now, some analysts argue that even if China achieves that goal, the US will surge ahead again. So, have we already witnessed “peak China”?
It is just as dangerous to overestimate Chinese power as it is to underestimate it. Underestimation breeds complacency, whereas overestimation stokes fear; but either can lead to miscalculations. A good strategy requires a careful net assessment.
Contrary to the current conventional wisdom, China is not the world’s largest economy. Measured in terms of purchasing power parity, it became larger than the US economy in 2014. But PPP is an economist’s device for comparing estimates of welfare; even if China someday surpasses the US in total economic size, GDP is not the only measure of geopolitical power. China remains well behind the US on military and soft-power indices, and its relative economic power is smaller still when one also considers US allies such as Europe, Japan, and Australia.
Read the full article here.
Peace Activists Take on the Pentagon’s Corporate “Merchants of Death”
Days after a U.S. warplane bombed a Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, killing forty-two people, twenty-four of them patients, the international president of MSF, Dr. Joanne Liu walked through the wreckage and prepared to deliver condolences to family members of those who had been killed. A brief video, taped in October, 2015, captures her nearly unutterable sadness as she speaks about a family who, the day before the bombing, had been prepared to bring their daughter home. Doctors had helped the young girl recover, but because war was raging outside the hospital, administrators recommended that the family come the next day. “She’s safer here,” they said.
The child was among those killed by the U.S. attacks, which recurred at fifteen minute intervals, for an hour and a half, even though MSF had already issued desperate pleas begging the United States and NATO forces to stop bombing the hospital.
Dr. Liu’s sad observations seemed to echo in the words of Pope Francis lamenting war’s afflictions. “We live with this diabolic pattern of killing one another out of the desire for power, the desire for security, the desire for many things. But I think of the hidden wars, those no one sees, that are far away from us,” he said. “People speak about peace. The United Nations has done everything possible, but they have not succeeded.” The tireless struggles of numerous world leaders, like Pope Francis and Dr. Joanne Liu, to stop the patterns of war were embraced vigorously by Phil Berrigan, a prophet of our time.
Read full article here.
A Controversial Path in Defense Tech
Josh Wolfe arrived at a remote island in the Philippines by inflatable boat, surrounded by men with large guns. It was 2019 and the founding partner of the New York venture firm Lux Capital was on a very strange work trip.
Over the course of two weeks, American soldiers escorted Wolfe through the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore. The soldiers were there to train, but Wolfe was there to observe. In rural Malaysia, he watched them creating makeshift electric saws to cut through doors by attaching portable batteries to backpacks. In Thailand, he witnessed dozens of soldiers storm staged criminal hideouts, struggling to transmit signals while using clunky, outdated communications systems. Darting around Asia by boat, armed vehicle and helicopter, Wolfe's assignment was to bring his Silicon Valley expertise to the U.S. military’s field operations and to tell the generals where their technology was failing them.
At the end of his Southeast Asian junket, it was time to deliver his judgment. Wolfe flew from Japan to Washington, D.C., where he was escorted to a secure conference room in the Pentagon. He sat at one end of a long table. Across from him sat four-star General Tony “T2” Thomas, then the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, alongside two other senior lieutenants.
Wolfe praised the American troops he had met, inspired by their ingenuity and how they acted like real-life MacGyvers in the field. But he was distressed about what the Pentagon gave them to work with. Their technology, he said, was woefully outdated, like using BlackBerrys in the age of the iPhone. He ended with a warning: “If I were [an enemy] mole in the Pentagon, instead of stealing anything that you guys are developing, I would make sure that you did nothing to your systems,” Wolfe told them. “Because they’re that bad. ”
Read full article here.
Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2021
The volume of international transfers of major arms in 2017–21 was 4.6 per cent lower than in 2012–16, but was 3.9 per cent higher than in 2007–11. The five largest arms exporters in 2017–21 were the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany. The five largest arms importers were India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Australia and China. Between 2012–16 and 2017–21 there were increases in arms transfers to Europe (19 per cent) and to the Middle East (2.8 per cent), while there were decreases in the transfers to the Americas (–36 per cent), Africa (–34 per cent), and Asia and Oceania (–4.7 per cent).
From 14 March 2022 SIPRI’s open-access Arms Transfers Database includes updated data on transfers of major arms for 1950–2021, which replaces all previous data on arms transfers published by SIPRI. Based on the new data, this Fact Sheet presents global trends in arms exports and arms imports, and highlights selected issues related to transfers of major arms.
Download the full report here.
United States Counterterrorism Operations 2018–2020
This map shows 85 countries where the United States government carried out counterterrorism operations in 2018, 2019, and/or 2020. The attacks closely match the placement of US missile networks in the second map and suggest that counter terrorism is actually perimeter defense for US offensive weapons sites.
U.S. air strikes operations and other programs are run out of civilian departments for military purposes around the world and includes counterterrorism operations by the Departments of Defense, State, Homeland Security, and other U.S. agencies abroad.
1. Countries where the U.S. conducted direct air and/or drone strikes against militant groups (seven, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen);
2. Countries where U.S. service members engaged in combat, using force on the ground against militants (eight, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen). Additionally, this category includes four other countries (Cameroon, Libya, Niger, and Tunisia) with active “Section 127e” programs. Section 127e is a U.S. legal authority that allows U.S. special operations forces to plan and control certain missions, remaining in charge of, rather than simply at the side of, the African counterparts they are ostensibly advising and assisting. Thus U.S. service members on the ground in these countries could have used force against militants via surrogates.
3. Countries in which the U.S. conducted formal, named military exercises to prepare for or rehearse scenarios of combatting terrorists (41);
4. Countries whose military, police, and/or border patrol forces the U.S. Departments of Defense, State, or others trained and/or assisted to increase their capacity to combat militants (79).
These categories are not comprehensive; the map does not show, for instance, U.S. military bases used for counterterrorism operations, arms sales to foreign governments, or all deployments of U.S. special operations forces. Nor does the map distinguish between different levels of activity. The training/assistance category, for example, includes operations ranging from large scale surveillance operations to donations of software for a border patrol system. The map conveys a bird’s eye view of the scale and scope of what the U.S. calls counterterrorism operations across the globe.
This expansive set of militaristic activities provides insight into current U.S. foreign policy. Despite the Pentagon’s assertion that the U.S. is shifting its strategic emphasis away from counterterrorism and towards great power competition with Russia and China, examining U.S. military activity on a country-by-country basis shows that there is yet to be a corresponding drawdown of the counterterror apparatus. If anything, counterterrorism operations have become more widespread in recent years. It is also important to note that the map shows the U.S. is targeting only some types of so-called terrorists and some types of violence, primarily in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, regions with majority non-white populations.
Download the full report here.